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247_011predictionAIAI-scaling

OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
41.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | OpenAI has 900 million soon to be a billion users

Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
OpenAI has 900 million soon to be a billion users

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓
  1. 2026-02-27hitChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active users (Feb 2026)
    How: OpenAI confirms ChatGPT weekly active users at or above 900M, doubling from Feb 2025 baseline of 400M
    Source: TechCrunch: ChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active usersconf 99%
    Notes: HIT on the 900M baseline that anchors Wissner-Gross's 'soon to be a billion' claim.
  2. 2026-03-15hitOpenAI reports 50M paying ChatGPT subscribers
    How: OpenAI publicly discloses ≥50M paying subscribers across ChatGPT Plus / Team / Enterprise / Pro tiers
    Source: Yahoo Finance / 9to5Mac coverage of OpenAI subscriber baseconf 90%
  3. 2026-04-01hitOpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacity
    How: OpenAI announces large primary or secondary funding round (≥$50B) supporting infrastructure for billion-user scale
    Source: OpenAI: Accelerating the next phase of AIconf 95%
  4. 2026-04-29hitOpenAI launches $8/month entry plan to expand subscriber base
    How: OpenAI launches lower-tier plan (~$8/mo) targeting 122M+ subscriber goal by year-end 2026
    Source: TheTechPortal: OpenAI targets 122Mn ChatGPT subscribers by 2026 with new $8 plan pushconf 85%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingChatGPT WAU breaches 1B threshold
    How: OpenAI announces or confirms via investor materials ≥1B weekly active users (any product surface)
    Source: OpenAI press; Sam Altman on X / annual reviewconf 70%
    Notes: Reports indicate OpenAI has missed this internal target so far — confidence moderated.
  6. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: OpenAI announces 2B+ users across ChatGPT family
    How: OpenAI confirms cumulative monthly active users across ChatGPT, GPT mobile apps, and integrations exceeds 2B
    Source: OpenAI annual product reportconf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z41.3%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 42.3% → 41.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.3%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 44.1% → 42.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 44.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.500-0.071
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5000.050-0.061
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5000.050-0.060
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.500-0.048
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.042

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.126
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.085
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.080
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.067
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.040

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.727manifoldWill any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?47%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.709manifoldBefore 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?24%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.672manifoldWill ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026?20%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.662manifoldHow many clicks will The Global Counter have by end of May 2026mentionspending2026-04-29
0.651manifoldOPQA (OpenAI-proof QA) hits 20% before 202759%mentionspending2026-05-30
0.648manifoldHow many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?mentionspending2026-05-03
0.639github_releaseopenai/openai-python v2.16.0mentionspending2026-01-27
0.637gdeltgoogle gives openai 20 billion reasons to worry 2000752324mentionspending2026-04-30
0.629arxivBrahmicTokenizer-131K: An Indic-Capable Drop-In Replacement for o200k_basementionspending2026-05-28
0.628manifoldWhen will the Jai programming language be public?mentionspending2026-05-10

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 billion users",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "OpenAI has 900 million soon to be a billion users and they are synonymous with AI for the majority of the public people",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "OpenAI has 900 million soon to be a billion users",
  "conv_cues": "soon to be",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active users (Feb 2026)",
      "notes": "HIT on the 900M baseline that anchors Wissner-Gross's 'soon to be a billion' claim.",
      "source": "TechCrunch: ChatGPT reaches 900M weekly active users",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/27/chatgpt-reaches-900m-weekly-active-users/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-27",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI confirms ChatGPT weekly active users at or above 900M, doubling from Feb 2025 baseline of 400M"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI reports 50M paying ChatGPT subscribers",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance / 9to5Mac coverage of OpenAI subscriber base",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://9to5mac.com/2026/02/27/chatgpt-approaching-1-billion-weekly-active-users/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publicly discloses ≥50M paying subscribers across ChatGPT Plus / Team / Enterprise / Pro tiers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI raises $122B funding round to scale capacity",
      "source": "OpenAI: Accelerating the next phase of AI",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI announces large primary or secondary funding round (≥$50B) supporting infrastructure for billion-user scale"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "k
... (truncated)