Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K
Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | cybercab is that that's going to be priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced
Verbatim quote
cybercab is that that's going to be priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced
Predictor: Elon Musk
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-29hitFirst Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off lineHow: Tesla announces / shares image of first production-VIN Cybercab unit completing assembly; verified via Tesla press release or Musk X postSource: https://thedriven.io/2026/04/29/first-tesla-cybercab-with-production-vin-rolls-off-production-line/conf 95%
- 2026-05-27overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-04-29 → 2026-09-30pendingTesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestoneHow: Tesla press release or Musk public statement confirms Cybercab MSRP/configurator price under $30,000 USD; verified via Tesla.com configurator or press releaseSource: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-retail-sales-confirmed-for-under-30k-in-2026conf 70%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingCybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)How: Tesla quarterly earnings or production update reports Cybercab production reaching ~144/day (10-min cycle, 24/7) or weekly equivalent; verified via Tesla 10-QSource: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-april-2026-the-autonomous-era-beginsconf 40%
- 2026-07-21pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-11-30pendingFirst public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleetHow: Tesla delivers first Cybercab unit either to retail customer OR onto Tesla Network robotaxi fleet, confirmed via Tesla announcement or media coverageSource: https://teslahubs.com/blogs/tips/tesla-cybercab-2026-production-price-releaseconf 55%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingCascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializesHow: Tesla publicly delays mass-production / customer delivery to Q4 2026 or 2027 due to safety/regulatory issues, OR no such delay occurs; verified via Tesla 10-Q / pressSource: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/tesla-will-delay-release-of-cybercab-until-late-2026-owing-to-safety-issues-fund-manager-predicts/cZdDVgaRIO9conf 40%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingCascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slotsHow: Tesla.com adds Cybercab as orderable configurator SKU with reservation/delivery scheduling; verified via Tesla.comSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercabconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.8321258624424541,
"kappa": 0.6875,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Elon Musk",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.5019501067890919,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.3770824960243967,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"kappa": 0.6875,
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"weight": 0.05,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"measurement_criterion": null
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.41751189629028207,
"outside_weight": 0.5824881037097179,
"posterior_prob": 0.31416745195784307,
"posterior_logit": -0.7807073686134549,
"predictor_brier": 0.01417,
"inside_posterior": 0.31416745195784307,
"blended_posterior": 0.31416745195784307,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
"predictor_n_resolved": 3
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.141 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.118 |
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | 40.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.084 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (14)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (3)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.667 | manifold | Tesla reaches $400 before $300? | 70% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-25 |
| 0.645 | manifold | Bitcoin price on June 30? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.639 | manifold | What will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.602 | manifold | What will the MSRP of the Flipper One? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.594 | manifold | What will the national average gas price be on July 1st? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.588 | manifold | US Gas Price on June 15? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.583 | manifold | Price of gas on Election Day? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-25 |
| 0.582 | manifold | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026? | 14% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.582 | manifold | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026? | 7% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.573 | manifold | What will the national average gas price be on June 1st? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "$30,000",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced",
"cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"verbatim": "cybercab is that that's going to be priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced",
"conv_cues": "probably; roughly",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"timeframe": "at launch",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off line",
"source": "https://thedriven.io/2026/04/29/first-tesla-cybercab-with-production-vin-rolls-off-production-line/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla announces / shares image of first production-VIN Cybercab unit completing assembly; verified via Tesla press release or Musk X post"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-06-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestone",
"source": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-retail-sales-confirmed-for-under-30k-in-2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2026-07-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-04-29"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla press release or Musk public statement confirms Cybercab MSRP/configurator price under $30,000 USD; verified via Tesla.com configurator or press release"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)",
"source": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-april-2026-the-autonomous-era-begins",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2026-07-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla quarterly earnings or production update reports Cybercab production reaching ~144/day (10-min cycle, 24/7) or weekly equivalent; verified via Tesla 10-Q"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-07-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "242_020",
"expected_date": "2026-08-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleet",
"source": "https://teslahubs.com/blogs/tips/tesla-cybercab-2026-production-price-release",
"status": "pending",
... (truncated)