← Cockpit
242_020predictionAuto/TransportAGI

Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
31.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | cybercab is that that's going to be priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"
cybercab is that that's going to be priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-102026-06-04
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 31.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-04-29hitFirst Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off line
    How: Tesla announces / shares image of first production-VIN Cybercab unit completing assembly; verified via Tesla press release or Musk X post
    Source: https://thedriven.io/2026/04/29/first-tesla-cybercab-with-production-vin-rolls-off-production-line/conf 95%
  2. 2026-05-27overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-06-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2026-04-29 → 2026-09-30pendingTesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestone
    How: Tesla press release or Musk public statement confirms Cybercab MSRP/configurator price under $30,000 USD; verified via Tesla.com configurator or press release
    Source: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-retail-sales-confirmed-for-under-30k-in-2026conf 70%
  5. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingCybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)
    How: Tesla quarterly earnings or production update reports Cybercab production reaching ~144/day (10-min cycle, 24/7) or weekly equivalent; verified via Tesla 10-Q
    Source: https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-april-2026-the-autonomous-era-beginsconf 40%
  6. 2026-07-21pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2026-06-01 → 2026-11-30pendingFirst public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleet
    How: Tesla delivers first Cybercab unit either to retail customer OR onto Tesla Network robotaxi fleet, confirmed via Tesla announcement or media coverage
    Source: https://teslahubs.com/blogs/tips/tesla-cybercab-2026-production-price-releaseconf 55%
  8. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingCascade: Stocktwits/fund-manager prediction of late-2026 delay materializes
    How: Tesla publicly delays mass-production / customer delivery to Q4 2026 or 2027 due to safety/regulatory issues, OR no such delay occurs; verified via Tesla 10-Q / press
    Source: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/tesla-will-delay-release-of-cybercab-until-late-2026-owing-to-safety-issues-fund-manager-predicts/cZdDVgaRIO9conf 40%
  9. 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingCascade: Tesla Cybercab SKU added to Tesla.com configurator with delivery slots
    How: Tesla.com adds Cybercab as orderable configurator SKU with reservation/delivery scheduling; verified via Tesla.com
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercabconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 31%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-04T22:12:05Z31.4%-6.3pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.314 blend=0.314 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.8321258624424541,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Elon Musk",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5019501067890919,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3770824960243967,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.41751189629028207,
  "outside_weight": 0.5824881037097179,
  "posterior_prob": 0.31416745195784307,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7807073686134549,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01417,
  "inside_posterior": 0.31416745195784307,
  "blended_posterior": 0.31416745195784307,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 38.9% → 37.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.9%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 41.2% → 38.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.2%-4.7pp
Network propagation: 45.9% → 41.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.9%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 47.3% → 45.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z47.3%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 47.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.141
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.118
prereqS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026
Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026
40.0%0.5000.050-0.084

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026robotaxi_deployment
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.667manifoldTesla reaches $400 before $300?70%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.645manifoldBitcoin price on June 30?mentionspending2026-06-02
0.639manifoldWhat will the price of Bitcoin hit by May 30th UTC?mentionspending2026-05-15
0.602manifoldWhat will the MSRP of the Flipper One?mentionspending2026-05-28
0.594manifoldWhat will the national average gas price be on July 1st?mentionspending2026-05-28
0.588manifoldUS Gas Price on June 15?mentionspending2026-05-31
0.583manifoldPrice of gas on Election Day?mentionspending2026-04-25
0.582manifoldWill national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?14%mentionspending2026-05-10
0.582manifoldWill national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?7%mentionspending2026-05-10
0.573manifoldWhat will the national average gas price be on June 1st?mentionspending2026-04-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$30,000",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced",
  "cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "verbatim": "cybercab is that that's going to be priced at probably 30K is what roughly what Elon's announced",
  "conv_cues": "probably; roughly",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "at launch",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Tesla Cybercab production VIN rolls off line",
      "source": "https://thedriven.io/2026/04/29/first-tesla-cybercab-with-production-vin-rolls-off-production-line/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla announces / shares image of first production-VIN Cybercab unit completing assembly; verified via Tesla press release or Musk X post"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla confirms <$30K retail price at production VIN milestone",
      "source": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-retail-sales-confirmed-for-under-30k-in-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-04-29"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla press release or Musk public statement confirms Cybercab MSRP/configurator price under $30,000 USD; verified via Tesla.com configurator or press release"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cybercab mass production ramp at Giga Texas (10-min cycle time)",
      "source": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-april-2026-the-autonomous-era-begins",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla quarterly earnings or production update reports Cybercab production reaching ~144/day (10-min cycle, 24/7) or weekly equivalent; verified via Tesla 10-Q"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "242_020",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First public Cybercab delivery / handover to customer or robotaxi fleet",
      "source": "https://teslahubs.com/blogs/tips/tesla-cybercab-2026-production-price-release",
      "status": "pending",
... (truncated)