Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate
Predictor: Marc Andreessen · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | that is indeed what we are getting and it's amazing.
Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam
Verbatim quote
that is indeed what we are getting and it's amazing.
Resolution evidence
Mark Andreessen 'compassionate goddess' framing is aesthetic, not empirical. Treat as thesis.
Predictor: Marc Andreessen
Evidence about this node from Marc Andreessen is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y
Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnthropic publishes Constitutional AI v2/v3 advancing model character/values trainingHow: Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind publish peer-reviewed paper or technical report on character/values training methodology that demonstrably improves model behavior on wisdom/compassion benchmarksSource: https://labs.adaline.ai/p/the-ai-research-landscape-in-2026conf 70%
- 2026-10-31pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFrontier model demonstrates sustained pro-social behavior in red-team evaluationsHow: Independent red-team report (Apollo, METR, UK AISI) shows frontier model maintains values-aligned behavior >=95% across adversarial scenarios including high-stakes/agentic tasksSource: https://labs.adaline.ai/p/the-ai-research-landscape-in-2026conf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWisdom benchmark (e.g., wise-action selection at moral dilemmas) introduced and adoptedHow: Academic or industry consortium publishes a quantitative wisdom/compassion benchmark, adopted by >=3 frontier labs, with leaderboard tracking model performance over timeSource: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.htmlconf 50%
- 2027-05-04pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-05-08pendingMulti-lab alignment compact: top 5 labs publish joint statement on values-aligned AGIHow: Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, and Meta jointly publish technical compact on values-aligned model training with binding evaluation commitmentsSource: https://openai.com/index/next-phase-of-enterprise-ai/conf 30%
- 2027-11-05pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingCascade: First clinical study showing AI mental-health agent improves wellbeing vs human therapistsHow: Peer-reviewed RCT (NEJM, JAMA, Lancet) with >=500 participants shows AI-mediated psychological intervention non-inferior or superior to licensed human therapist on PHQ-9/GAD-7 outcomesSource: https://labs.adaline.ai/p/the-ai-research-landscape-in-2026conf 45%
- 2027-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingCascade: Major religious or philosophical institution publicly endorses 'AI as moral peer'How: Vatican, Dalai Lama office, or comparable global ethical authority issues formal document recognizing certain AI systems as moral agents worthy of ethical considerationSource: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.htmlconf 20%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | 35.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.178 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.069 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.047 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (14)
Adverse (7)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_MID_2029 | AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS | ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
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"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Other",
"context": "a super intelligence would become something akin to a goddess of compassion, not a paper clipper. So uh and then Mark Andre wrote back that is indeed what we are getting and it's amazing.",
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "that is indeed what we are getting and it's amazing.",
"conv_cues": "is indeed",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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"measurement_criterion": "Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, and Meta jointly publish technical compact on values-aligned model trainin
... (truncated)