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247_033predictionBiotech/LongevityAGI

Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade

Predictor: Demis Hassabis · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
70.0%
Current probability
62.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2036-06-30
Edges in / out
3 / 1
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade | Demis said cure all disease within a decade.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
Demis said cure all disease within a decade.

Predictor: Demis Hassabis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Demis Hassabis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 70%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 62.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2027-10-22pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2029-08-12pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2031-06-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 62%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z62.0%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 63.3% → 62.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z63.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 65.5% → 63.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z65.5%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 69.4% → 65.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z69.4%+5.2pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.694 blend=0.694 LLR=0.237 κ=0.58 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z64.2%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 66.2% → 64.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z66.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 70.0% → 66.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.7000.050-0.068
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.700-0.018
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.700+0.015

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050+0.057

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.550codex_research_packFDA - Framework for AI Models Used for Drug and Biological Product Submissionscorroboratespending2025-01-06
0.550codex_research_packIsomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the cliniccorroboratespending2025-03-31

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Demis said cure all disease within a decade",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "verbatim": "Demis said cure all disease within a decade.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Within a decade (by ~2036)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2029-08-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2031-06-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "247_033",
      "expected_date": "2033-03-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_047",
      "expected_date": "2037-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Longevity",
  "affiliation": "Google DeepMind",
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
  "episode_num": 247,
  "granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
  "target_date": "2031-06-15",
  "display_date": "2033-03-24",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-14",
  "parse_method": "RELATIVE fallback midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Biotech",
  "episode_title": "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": false,
  "appears_in_eps": "247",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C5"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2036-12",
  "recent_statement": "Feb 2026 comments: AGI timeline shifted from '5-10 years' to '3-5 years' but emphasizes coordination challenges and AI's 'jagged intelligence.' Calls it '10x industrial revolution at 10x speed' per Ep 234 citation.",
  "months_from_today": 62,
  "active_start_month": "2026-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Biotech/Longevity → 06/2036",
    "new_date": "2036-06-30",
    "old_date": "2036-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "track_record_grade": "A",
  "track_record_notes": "Extremely careful; 2016 AlphaGo call and protein-folding 2020 forecast were both correct. Nobel laureate 2024. His '10x industrial revolution at 10x speed' is his most aggressive macro claim.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": true,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T21:26:03.397670+00:00",
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.366489+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_filtered",
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_id_unfiltered": "fda_breakthr