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245_034predictionOtherAI-timing

Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
40.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
— – —
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | when we brought back the direwolves, we got some feedback that are like, 'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
when we brought back the direwolves, we got some feedback that are like, 'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUSDA Wildlife Services / NASS report shows wolf-attributed cattle losses remain <0.05% of total cattle inventory annually
    How: USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services state-by-state wolf depredation summary plus USDA NASS Cattle Death Loss survey shows wolf attributable cattle deaths at <0.05% of national herd
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingOregon, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana wolf-cattle predation data continues to decline or stay flat as cattle operations scale and use deterrents
    How: ODFW / Wyoming Game & Fish / Idaho Fish & Game / MT FWP annual reports show wolf-attributable cattle confirmed kills not increasing year-over-year despite wolf population growth
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingPeer-reviewed study confirms modern feedlot/intensive cattle operations correlate with near-zero wolf predation
    How: Peer-reviewed wildlife/agricultural ecology paper in Journal of Wildlife Management or equivalent confirms intensive-management cattle operations have <0.01% wolf depredation rate, supporting prediction's mechanism
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 62%

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450-0.036
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.450-0.016
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.004

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'",
  "verbatim": "when we brought back the direwolves, we got some feedback that are like, 'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'",
  "conv_cues": "aren't going near",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Current/near future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "USDA Wildlife Services / NASS report shows wolf-attributed cattle losses remain <0.05% of total cattle inventory annually",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/gray-wolves.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services state-by-state wolf depredation summary plus USDA NASS Cattle Death Loss survey shows wolf attributable cattle deaths at <0.05% of national herd"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Oregon, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana wolf-cattle predation data continues to decline or stay flat as cattle operations scale and use deterrents",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://capitalpress.com/2026/04/21/oregon-wolf-population-livestock-attacks-grow/",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "ODFW / Wyoming Game & Fish / Idaho Fish & Game / MT FWP annual reports show wolf-attributable cattle confirmed kills not increasing year-over-year despite wolf population growth"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Peer-reviewed study confirms modern feedlot/intensive cattle operations correlate with near-zero wolf predation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.62,
      "source_url": "https://www.humaneworld.org/sites/default/files/docs/HSUS-Wolf-Livestock-6.Mar_.19Final.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed wildlife/agricultural ecology paper in Journal of Wildlife Management or equivalent confirms intensive-management cattle operations have <0.01% wolf depredation rate, supporting prediction's mechanism"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "untimeable": true,
  "affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 245,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-07",
  "parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
  "domain_bucket": "Other",
  "episode_title": "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": false,
  "appears_in_eps": "245",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C5"
  ],
  "active_end_month": 0,
  "untimeable_reason": "current behavioral fact about wolves and cattle",
  "active_start_month": 0,
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,

... (truncated)