Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | when we brought back the direwolves, we got some feedback that are like, 'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'
Verbatim quote
when we brought back the direwolves, we got some feedback that are like, 'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUSDA Wildlife Services / NASS report shows wolf-attributed cattle losses remain <0.05% of total cattle inventory annuallyHow: USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services state-by-state wolf depredation summary plus USDA NASS Cattle Death Loss survey shows wolf attributable cattle deaths at <0.05% of national herdSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingOregon, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana wolf-cattle predation data continues to decline or stay flat as cattle operations scale and use deterrentsHow: ODFW / Wyoming Game & Fish / Idaho Fish & Game / MT FWP annual reports show wolf-attributable cattle confirmed kills not increasing year-over-year despite wolf population growthSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingPeer-reviewed study confirms modern feedlot/intensive cattle operations correlate with near-zero wolf predationHow: Peer-reviewed wildlife/agricultural ecology paper in Journal of Wildlife Management or equivalent confirms intensive-management cattle operations have <0.01% wolf depredation rate, supporting prediction's mechanismSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 62%
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Prerequisites (3)
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| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'",
"verbatim": "when we brought back the direwolves, we got some feedback that are like, 'Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle.' It's like, 'The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it.'",
"conv_cues": "aren't going near",
"direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Current/near future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "USDA Wildlife Services / NASS report shows wolf-attributed cattle losses remain <0.05% of total cattle inventory annually",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.92,
"source_url": "https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/gray-wolves.pdf",
"expected_date": "2026-09-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services state-by-state wolf depredation summary plus USDA NASS Cattle Death Loss survey shows wolf attributable cattle deaths at <0.05% of national herd"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Oregon, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana wolf-cattle predation data continues to decline or stay flat as cattle operations scale and use deterrents",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://capitalpress.com/2026/04/21/oregon-wolf-population-livestock-attacks-grow/",
"expected_date": "2027-11-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "ODFW / Wyoming Game & Fish / Idaho Fish & Game / MT FWP annual reports show wolf-attributable cattle confirmed kills not increasing year-over-year despite wolf population growth"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Peer-reviewed study confirms modern feedlot/intensive cattle operations correlate with near-zero wolf predation",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.62,
"source_url": "https://www.humaneworld.org/sites/default/files/docs/HSUS-Wolf-Livestock-6.Mar_.19Final.pdf",
"expected_date": "2028-07-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2029-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed wildlife/agricultural ecology paper in Journal of Wildlife Management or equivalent confirms intensive-management cattle operations have <0.01% wolf depredation rate, supporting prediction's mechanism"
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"untimeable": true,
"affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 245,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"episode_date": "2026-04-07",
"parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
"domain_bucket": "Other",
"episode_title": "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": false,
"appears_in_eps": "245",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 4,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C2",
"C3",
"C5"
],
"active_end_month": 0,
"untimeable_reason": "current behavioral fact about wolves and cattle",
"active_start_month": 0,
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
... (truncated)