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233_009predictionEducationAI-timing

A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.

Predictor: Joe Liemandt · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
35.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | So we have some of the world's best video game designers that that's going to be released in 2026. We work with some of these biggest influencers, right? and packaging all this up where... it's a bundle >> motivation plus the learning

Verbatim quote

From episode "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233"
So we have some of the world's best video game designers that that's going to be released in 2026. We work with some of these biggest influencers, right? and packaging all this up where... it's a bundle >> motivation plus the learning

Predictor: Joe Liemandt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Joe Liemandt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-022026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2026-05-31overdueInfluencer-packaged motivational learning bundle announced
    How: Alpha School / Trilogy / 2 Hour Learning publicly announces a bundled product combining motivation, top-tier influencer content, and AI-tutor academics
    Source: Alpha School blog, https://alpha.school/blog/conf 50%
  2. 2026-01-01 → 2026-08-31overdueTimeback platform launches as Alpha's commercial education engine
    How: Timeback platform / EducationOS publicly launches with announced AAA-game integration
    Source: https://alpha.school/the-future-of-education-joe-liemandts-vision-for-alpha-school/conf 70%
    Notes: Timeback explicitly framed as 2026 launch; AAA game referenced as bundled.
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingPublic press coverage names specific game-designer collaborators
    How: Mainstream tech/education press article names specific game designers (e.g., from Riot, Activision, Roblox, indie marquee) joined with Alpha/Trilogy
    Source: Tech press (TechCrunch, The 74, EdSurge)conf 35%
  4. 2026-03-01 → 2026-12-31pendingGame-based learning module ships with named designer credit
    How: Alpha School / 2HL ships a learning game with publicly named AAA-tier game designer attribution
    Source: Alpha School / Joe Liemandt podcast statements, https://alpha.school/joe-liemandt-and-the-future-of-education/conf 45%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingBundle uptake measured: enrollment in non-Alpha-school Timeback pilots
    How: >=10,000 students using Timeback / motivational bundle outside Alpha brick-and-mortar campuses
    Source: Alpha School corporate communications, K-12 ed-tech market reportsconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 36%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z35.5%+1.7pp
Network propagation: 33.8% → 35.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-10T22:10:52Z33.8%-3.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.338 blend=0.338 LLR=-0.166 κ=0.58 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.1338385537927469,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Joe Liemandt",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5071148942803881,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3758701048152275,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.40831,
      "label": "Timeback platform launches as Alpha's commercial education engine",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://alpha.school/the-future-of-education-joe-liemandts-vision-for-alpha-school/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.1655554582916446,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-02",
      "measurement_criterion": "Timeback platform / EducationOS publicly launches with announced AAA-game integration"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.9063130123450771,
  "outside_weight": 0.09368698765492289,
  "posterior_prob": 0.33789916229851663,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6726703525720328,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0064,
  "inside_posterior": 0.33789916229851663,
  "blended_posterior": 0.33789916229851663,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.1655554582916446,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z37.6%-2.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.376 blend=0.376 LLR=-0.118 κ=0.58 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.18718816479722222,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Joe Liemandt",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.388860995500642,
  "bayes_factor": "1.1:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.40399152289169094,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.29165,
      "label": "Influencer-packaged motivational learning bundle announced",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://alpha.school/blog/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.11825389877974615,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-17",
      "measurement_criterion": "Alpha School / Trilogy / 2 Hour Learning publicly announces a bundled product combining motivation, top-tier influencer content, and AI-tutor academics"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.8689682846419444,
  "outside_weight": 0.13103171535805558,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3758701048152275,
  "posterior_logit": -0.5071148942803881,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0064,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3758701048152275,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3758701048152275,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.11825389877974615,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

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killerTK03
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10.0%0.0500.450+0.055
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15.0%0.0500.450+0.035
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450+0.015
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.014
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.008

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.096
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.090
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.087
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31.4%0.5500.050-0.082
prereq232_055
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35.5%0.7000.050-0.068

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.662manifold▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in May 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-05-01
0.658manifold▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-06-01
0.652manifoldWhen will Manifest 2026 have 10+ session videos available online?mentionspending2026-06-03
0.648manifoldWhen will Manifest 2026 upload videos of presentations to Youtube?mentionspending2026-06-03
0.620polymarketWill GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026?1%mentionspending2026-04-06
0.614manifoldWill more than 25,000 games be released on Steam this year?60%mentionspending2026-05-19
0.611manifoldwill there be a new llm release by the end of may?98%mentionspending2026-05-17
0.607polymarketWill Lynn Vision win IEM Cologne Major 2026?0%mentionspending2026-04-06
0.607polymarketWill Gaimin Gladiators win IEM Cologne Major 2026?0%mentionspending2026-04-06
0.604polymarketWill FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2%mentionspending2026-04-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "how do we package up both a motivational component with the learning component. So we have some of the world's best video game designers that that's going to be released in 2026. We work with some of these biggest influencers, right? and packaging all this up where it's a bundle >> motivation plus the learning and that >> is hard.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "So we have some of the world's best video game designers that that's going to be released in 2026. We work with some of these biggest influencers, right? and packaging all this up where... it's a bundle >> motivation plus the learning",
  "conv_cues": "that's going to be released in 2026",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Influencer-packaged motivational learning bundle announced",
      "source": "Alpha School blog, https://alpha.school/blog/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://alpha.school/blog/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-17",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-05-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Alpha School / Trilogy / 2 Hour Learning publicly announces a bundled product combining motivation, top-tier influencer content, and AI-tutor academics"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Timeback platform launches as Alpha's commercial education engine",
      "notes": "Timeback explicitly framed as 2026 launch; AAA game referenced as bundled.",
      "source": "https://alpha.school/the-future-of-education-joe-liemandts-vision-for-alpha-school/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://alpha.school/the-future-of-education-joe-liemandts-vision-for-alpha-school/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-02",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-10T22:10:52.342846+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-08-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
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      "measurement_criterion": "Timeback platform / EducationOS publicly launches with announced AAA-game integration"
    },
    {
      "kind": "even
... (truncated)