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245_032predictionOtherAI-timing

Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
40.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
— – —
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education | we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO, uh, uh, narrative as it relates to, uh, uh, the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO, uh, uh, narrative as it relates to, uh, uh, the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAustralian government issues formal stance on de-extinction GMO regulation for thylacine project
    How: OGTR (Office of the Gene Technology Regulator) Australia or federal Environment Department publishes statement/regulation specifically addressing thylacine de-extinction GMO classification
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingPolling shows Australian public acceptance of thylacine de-extinction >=60%
    How: Roy Morgan, Essential Report, Lowy Institute, or peer-reviewed study shows Australian respondent support for thylacine reintroduction at >=60%, distinct from anti-GMO food polling
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  3. 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingColossal/TIGRR Lab achieves first thylacine embryo or proxy-species birth requiring formal anti-GMO public-education campaign
    How: Colossal/Pask lab announces first viable thylacine embryo OR triggers federal/state public-education campaign explicitly framed as 'de-extinction is not GMO food'
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450-0.036
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.450-0.016
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.004

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO... narrative as it relates to... the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country",
  "verbatim": "we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO, uh, uh, narrative as it relates to, uh, uh, the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country",
  "conv_cues": "we had to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Near future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Australian government issues formal stance on de-extinction GMO regulation for thylacine project",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.unimelb.edu.au/giving/impact-of-giving/impact-stories/bringing-back-to-life-an-enigmatic-marsupial",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OGTR (Office of the Gene Technology Regulator) Australia or federal Environment Department publishes statement/regulation specifically addressing thylacine de-extinction GMO classification"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Polling shows Australian public acceptance of thylacine de-extinction >=60%",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/efforts-to-find-revive-extinct-tasmanian-tiger-australia-60-minutes/",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Roy Morgan, Essential Report, Lowy Institute, or peer-reviewed study shows Australian respondent support for thylacine reintroduction at >=60%, distinct from anti-GMO food polling"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Colossal/TIGRR Lab achieves first thylacine embryo or proxy-species birth requiring formal anti-GMO public-education campaign",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.rsv.org.au/articles/thylacine-de-extinction",
      "expected_date": "2029-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal/Pask lab announces first viable thylacine embryo OR triggers federal/state public-education campaign explicitly framed as 'de-extinction is not GMO food'"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "untimeable": true,
  "affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 245,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-07",
  "parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
  "domain_bucket": "Other",
  "episode_title": "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": false,
  "appears_in_eps": "245",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C5"
  ],
  "active_end_month": 0,
  "untimeable_reason": "current public-perception observation, not a prediction",
  "active_start_month": 0,
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "track_record_grade": "B-",
  "track_record_n
... (truncated)