Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education | we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO, uh, uh, narrative as it relates to, uh, uh, the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country
Verbatim quote
we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO, uh, uh, narrative as it relates to, uh, uh, the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAustralian government issues formal stance on de-extinction GMO regulation for thylacine projectHow: OGTR (Office of the Gene Technology Regulator) Australia or federal Environment Department publishes statement/regulation specifically addressing thylacine de-extinction GMO classificationSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingPolling shows Australian public acceptance of thylacine de-extinction >=60%How: Roy Morgan, Essential Report, Lowy Institute, or peer-reviewed study shows Australian respondent support for thylacine reintroduction at >=60%, distinct from anti-GMO food pollingSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingColossal/TIGRR Lab achieves first thylacine embryo or proxy-species birth requiring formal anti-GMO public-education campaignHow: Colossal/Pask lab announces first viable thylacine embryo OR triggers federal/state public-education campaign explicitly framed as 'de-extinction is not GMO food'Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
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Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (3)
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| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
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Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO... narrative as it relates to... the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country",
"verbatim": "we had to then educate the Australian government like you can't just have an anti-GMO, uh, uh, narrative as it relates to, uh, uh, the Tasmanian tiger because then you can't rewcred species back into your country",
"conv_cues": "we had to",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Near future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Australian government issues formal stance on de-extinction GMO regulation for thylacine project",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
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"source_url": "https://www.unimelb.edu.au/giving/impact-of-giving/impact-stories/bringing-back-to-life-an-enigmatic-marsupial",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "OGTR (Office of the Gene Technology Regulator) Australia or federal Environment Department publishes statement/regulation specifically addressing thylacine de-extinction GMO classification"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/efforts-to-find-revive-extinct-tasmanian-tiger-australia-60-minutes/",
"expected_date": "2027-11-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
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},
"measurement_criterion": "Roy Morgan, Essential Report, Lowy Institute, or peer-reviewed study shows Australian respondent support for thylacine reintroduction at >=60%, distinct from anti-GMO food polling"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Colossal/TIGRR Lab achieves first thylacine embryo or proxy-species birth requiring formal anti-GMO public-education campaign",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
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"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://www.rsv.org.au/articles/thylacine-de-extinction",
"expected_date": "2029-07-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2028-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal/Pask lab announces first viable thylacine embryo OR triggers federal/state public-education campaign explicitly framed as 'de-extinction is not GMO food'"
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"untimeable": true,
"affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 245,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"episode_date": "2026-04-07",
"parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
"domain_bucket": "Other",
"episode_title": "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
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"appears_in_eps": "245",
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"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C2",
"C3",
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],
"active_end_month": 0,
"untimeable_reason": "current public-perception observation, not a prediction",
"active_start_month": 0,
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"track_record_grade": "B-",
"track_record_n
... (truncated)