COD_SPC_005predictionSpaceDragonfly-Titan

NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

70.0%

Current probability

33.4%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2028-07-01 – 2028-07-31

Edges in / out

3 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 33.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 2 pending

2024-11-25hitNASA awards Falcon Heavy launch contract for Dragonfly
How: NASA publicly awards SpaceX a Falcon Heavy launch services contract for Dragonfly
Source: https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-dragonfly-mission/conf 99%
2025-09-12hitDragonfly rotor performance verified in Titan-like conditions
How: Rotor testing campaign at NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel completes successfully
Source: https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/News-and-Resources/news/20250912.phpconf 95%
2026-01-31hitDragonfly enters integration and test phase
How: APL/NASA confirms Dragonfly has formally entered integration and test phase per project schedule
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/dragonfly/2025/09/08/nasas-dragonfly-soaring-through-key-development-test-activities/conf 95%
2027-09-01 → 2028-04-30pendingDragonfly final spacecraft integration and shipment to KSC
How: Spacecraft completes integration and ships from APL to Kennedy Space Center for launch processing
Source: JHUAPL Dragonfly mission updatesconf 80%
2028-07-05 → 2028-07-25pendingDragonfly launch on Falcon Heavy, July 2028 window
How: Falcon Heavy launches Dragonfly from KSC LC-39A within July 5-25, 2028 window
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)conf 75%
Notes: Resolution event for the prediction itself.
2028-07-21pendingNASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 33%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z33.4%-4.6pp

Network propagation: 38.0% → 33.4%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z38.0%-7.6pp

Network propagation: 45.6% → 38.0%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.6%-11.3pp

Network propagation: 56.9% → 45.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.9%-13.1pp

Network propagation: 70.0% → 56.9%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis	35.6%	0.700	0.050	-0.062

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

LMT NOC

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	246_016	Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.	Space	—
correlate	S_MARS_2028	Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	S_MARS_2031PLUS	Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2028-07-31	NASA Dragonfly launch window on Falcon Heavy	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA - Dragonfly development and launch schedule	—	mentions	pending	2025-09-08
0.676	manifold	Will Blue Moon be launched on Falcon Heavy ?	17%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.674	edgar_8k	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-05
0.674	edgar_8k	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.674	edgar_8k	Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) (CIK 0001860160)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.634	manifold	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) close at or above $8.00 on June 18, 2026?	21%	mentions	pending	2026-05-31
0.608	github_release	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.0	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-03
0.591	manifold	On what rocket will Blue moon MK1-SN001 launch on?	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.591	github_release	facebookresearch/faiss v1.10.0	—	mentions	pending	2025-01-31
0.588	github_release	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.1.0	—	mentions	pending	2023-08-07

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA awards Falcon Heavy launch contract for Dragonfly",
      "source": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-dragonfly-mission/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-dragonfly-mission/",
      "expected_date": "2024-11-25",
      "observed_date": "2024-11-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA publicly awards SpaceX a Falcon Heavy launch services contract for Dragonfly"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dragonfly rotor performance verified in Titan-like conditions",
      "source": "https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/News-and-Resources/news/20250912.php",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/News-and-Resources/news/20250912.php",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-12",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Rotor testing campaign at NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel completes successfully"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dragonfly enters integration and test phase",
      "source": "https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/dragonfly/2025/09/08/nasas-dragonfly-soaring-through-key-development-test-activities/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/dragonfly/2025/09/08/nasas-dragonfly-soaring-through-key-development-test-activities/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "APL/NASA confirms Dragonfly has formally entered integration and test phase per project schedule"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Dragonfly final spacecraft integration and shipment to KSC",
      "source": "JHUAPL Dragonfly mission updates",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-04-30",
        "from": "2027-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Spacecraft completes integration and ships from APL to Kennedy Space Center for launch processing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Dragonfly launch on Falcon Heavy, July 2028 window",
      "notes": "Resolution event for the prediction itself.",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(Titan_space_probe)",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-07-25",
        "from": "2028-07-05"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Falcon Heavy launches Dragonfly from KSC LC-39A within July 5-25, 2028 window"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_SPC_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "source_ids": [
    "SRC_NASA_DRAGONFLY"
  ],
  "display_date": "2028-07-21",
  "suggested_edges": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "src_id": "246_016",
      "weight": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "ticker_exposures":