CMQ_062predictionQuantumquantum-interference

Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

Prior probability

75.0%

Current probability

61.5%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

in_progress

Window

2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31

Edges in / out

4 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. | Logical qubit counts + quantum-interference mass scale

Key catalyst: Logical qubit counts + quantum-interference mass scale

Watch events: Macroscopic quantum interference experiments; logical qubit count progression.

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Macroscopic quantum interference experiments (2025-2026) with molecules approaching nanogram scale; IBM / Google / IonQ / Quantinuum all progressing logical-qubit counts.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.844

Brier

0.0341

excellent

Hits / Misses

6 / 1

of 11 resolved

Hit rate

54.5%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 61.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 overdue ⏱

2024-12-09hitGoogle Willow chip demonstrates below-threshold error correction
How: Google publishes Willow chip results showing error rate decreasing as code distance increases (below threshold)
Source: https://www.programming-helper.com/tech/quantum-computing-race-2026-ibm-google-microsoft-breakthroughs-advantageconf 95%
Notes: HIT — Willow's 105-qubit chip below threshold confirmed.
2025-05-12overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2025-12-31hitQuantinuum / IBM cross 10+ logical qubits within 2025
How: Quantinuum or IBM demonstrates >=10 logical qubits encoded with quantum error correction
Source: https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/05/16/quantum-computing-roadmaps-a-look-at-the-maps-and-predictions-of-major-quantum-players/conf 85%
Notes: HIT — Quantinuum roadmap targeted 10+ logical qubits in 2025.
2025-09-20overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2025-10-07hit2025 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for macroscopic quantum tunneling
How: Nobel Committee awards Physics Nobel for macroscopic quantum tunneling work
Source: https://www.spinquanta.com/news-detail/the-science-behind-the-2025-nobel-discovery-macroscopic-quantum-tunnelingconf 95%
Notes: HIT — 2025 Nobel acknowledged macroscopic quantum tunneling, validating the broader hardware-advancement narrative.
2025-12-15hitVienna team demonstrates quantum interference at 170,000 amu mass
How: Peer-reviewed Nature publication of Schrodinger-cat / matter-wave interference for clusters >=100,000 atomic mass units
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09917-9conf 95%
Notes: HIT — Arndt/Gerlich team in Nature: 8nm metallic clusters, 170,000 amu, macroscopicity μ=15.5 (10x prior record).
2025-12-15hitMacroscopicity record μ=15.5 published
How: Reported macroscopicity of quantum-superposition experiment exceeds μ=15 (>=order-of-magnitude over prior best)
Source: https://physicsworld.com/a/schrodinger-cat-state-sets-new-size-record/conf 95%
Notes: HIT — μ=15.5 reported, 10x prior best.
2026-01-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-06-09pendingPhysicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 62%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z61.5%+1.3pp

Network propagation: 60.2% → 61.5%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z60.2%+2.6pp

Network propagation: 57.6% → 60.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z57.6%+5.4pp

Network propagation: 52.2% → 57.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z52.2%+10.7pp

Network propagation: 41.5% → 52.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z41.5%-24.9pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.415 blend=0.415 LLR=-1.026 κ=0.84 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0,
  "kappa": 0.8438,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.682304814806253,
  "bayes_factor": "2.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.6642529139024106,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8438,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3421314582216691,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-12",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8438,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3421314582216691,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-20",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8438,
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3421314582216691,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-29",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.41481641737739916,
  "posterior_logit": -0.3440895598587542,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03413,
  "inside_posterior": 0.41481641737739916,
  "blended_posterior": 0.41481641737739916,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.0263943746650073,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 11
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z66.4%-3.1pp

Network propagation: 69.5% → 66.4%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z69.5%-5.5pp

Network propagation: 75.0% → 69.5%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.750	-0.110
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.750	+0.079
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.750	+0.051
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.750	+0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

8 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (8)

IONQ QUBT RGTI TSEM KEYS HON IBM GOOGL

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-04-29	partial	thesis_timeline_v1.0_import	Macroscopic quantum interference experiments (2025-2026) with molecules approaching nanogram scale; IBM / Google / IonQ / Quantinuum all progressing logical-qubit counts.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.661	arxiv	Quantum-enhanced Large Language Models on Quantum Hardware via Cayley Unitary Adapters	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.626	arxiv	Machine Learning Approaches to Building Quantum Circuits for Sets of Matrices	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.625	arxiv	Can machine learning for quantum-gas experiments be explainable?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-18
0.620	arxiv	Quantum enhanced rare event discovery and sampling	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.619	arxiv	Quantum Advantage in Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-14
0.616	arxiv	AQKA: Active Quantum Kernel Acquisition Under a Shot Budget	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-14
0.613	arxiv	Late-time Quantum Vacuum Decay and its Cosmological Implications	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.612	arxiv	Quantum field theory of massive chiral fields	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.611	arxiv	Fundamental or Composite? The Higgs Enigma	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-06
0.609	arxiv	Medium Characterization with Hard Probes: From Cherenkov Light in QED to Jet Drift in QCD	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "quantum mass scale",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Experimental quantum progress that could eventually integrate with AI systems for optimization / material science.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "successfully demonstrating; directional",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "2025+",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Google Willow chip demonstrates below-threshold error correction",
      "notes": "HIT — Willow's 105-qubit chip below threshold confirmed.",
      "source": "https://www.programming-helper.com/tech/quantum-computing-race-2026-ibm-google-microsoft-breakthroughs-advantage",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.programming-helper.com/tech/quantum-computing-race-2026-ibm-google-microsoft-breakthroughs-advantage",
      "expected_date": "2025-03-16",
      "observed_date": "2024-12-09",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-06-30",
        "from": "2024-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Google publishes Willow chip results showing error rate decreasing as code distance increases (below threshold)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-12",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Quantinuum / IBM cross 10+ logical qubits within 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — Quantinuum roadmap targeted 10+ logical qubits in 2025.",
      "source": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/05/16/quantum-computing-roadmaps-a-look-at-the-maps-and-predictions-of-major-quantum-players/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/05/16/quantum-computing-roadmaps-a-look-at-the-maps-and-predictions-of-major-quantum-players/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Quantinuum or IBM demonstrates >=10 logical qubits encoded with quantum error correction"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-20",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "2025 Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for macroscopic quantum tunneling",
      "notes": "HIT — 2025 Nobel acknowledged macroscopic quantum tunneling, validating the broader hardware-advancement narrative.",
      "source": "https://www.spinquanta.com/news-detail/the-science-behind-the-2025-nobel-discovery-macroscopic-quantum-tunneling",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.spinquanta.com/news-detail/the-science-behind-the-2025-nobel-discovery-macroscopic-quantum-tunneling",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-07",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Nobel Committee awards Physics Nobel for macroscopic quantum tunneling work"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vienna team demonstrates quantum interfe
... (truncated)