← Cockpit
229_047predictionAIAI-timing

Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
77.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year... we have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here | Next gen GPU cluster announcement

Key catalyst: Next gen GPU cluster announcement

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year... we have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 77.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 77%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z77.3%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 78.5% → 77.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z78.5%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 80.4% → 78.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z80.4%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 83.3% → 80.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z83.3%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 87.2% → 83.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.2%-4.8pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+16.7pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.833
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.16696999999999995,
  "inside_posterior": 0.83303,
  "validation_notes": "Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.83303,
  "resolution_evidence": "Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.9200.050-0.089
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.9200.050-0.077
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.9200.050-0.061
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.920+0.060
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.9200.050-0.051

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.194
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.194
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.151
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.133
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.119

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importFigure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.665github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post4mentionspending2023-10-13
0.649github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30mentionspending2025-04-28
0.642github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.31mentionspending2025-06-25
0.642github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post2mentionspending2025-01-31
0.641github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1mentionspending2024-09-13
0.639github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.34mentionspending2026-01-23
0.638github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.24mentionspending2024-01-31
0.623github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28mentionspending2024-09-12
0.622github_releasefacebookresearch/xformers v0.0.35mentionspending2026-02-20
0.616github_releasefacebookresearch/spdl v0.0.10mentionspending2025-03-20

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "3,000 B200s + more",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year. How many how many GPUs in your we we just we are going live. We have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year... we have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here",
  "conv_cues": "plan to put out; going live",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "this year (2026)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "229_047",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Figure",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 229,
  "granularity": 
... (truncated)