Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year... we have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here | Next gen GPU cluster announcement
Key catalyst: Next gen GPU cluster announcement
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year... we have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here
Resolution evidence
Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.16696999999999995,
"inside_posterior": 0.83303,
"validation_notes": "Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.83303,
"resolution_evidence": "Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.061 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.060 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.051 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.194 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.194 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.151 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.133 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.119 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Figure 3000 B200 cluster + larger GPUs — matches Adcock disclosures. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.665 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post4 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-10-13 |
| 0.649 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-04-28 |
| 0.642 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.31 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-06-25 |
| 0.642 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post2 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-01-31 |
| 0.641 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post1 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-09-13 |
| 0.639 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.34 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-01-23 |
| 0.638 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.24 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-01-31 |
| 0.623 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-09-12 |
| 0.622 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.35 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-02-20 |
| 0.616 | github_release | facebookresearch/spdl v0.0.10 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-03-20 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "3,000 B200s + more",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year. How many how many GPUs in your we we just we are going live. We have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "We just launched our new B200 cluster within like Nvidia helped Jensen helped that went live um like uh like this year... we have we have 3,000 B200s that like that are going live and we have another set of uh much larger GPUs that we plan to put out uh here",
"conv_cues": "plan to put out; going live",
"direction": "UP",
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],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "Figure",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 229,
"granularity":
... (truncated)