← Cockpit
232_013predictionAIAI-timing

Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.

Predictor: Jimmy Ba · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months. 2026 is going to be insane and likely the busiest and most consequential year for the future of our species.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months. 2026 is going to be insane and likely the busiest and most consequential year for the future of our species.

Predictor: Jimmy Ba

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.643
Brier
0.0122
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jimmy Ba is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓
  1. 2026-03-11hitMusk states 'hard takeoff right now' at Abundance Summit 2026
    How: Elon Musk publicly states AI is in hard takeoff phase, with full automation of AI loop expected by end-2026/2027
    Source: https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026conf 99%
  2. 2026-03-31hitKarpathy AutoResearch demonstrates RSI in production training
    How: Andrej Karpathy releases AutoResearch open-source agent that ran ~700 self-improvement experiments in 2 days yielding 11% LLM training speedup
    Source: https://medium.com/codex/recursive-self-improvement-ae03d40e7cdaconf 95%
  3. 2026-04-26hitICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes (first-of-kind)
    How: ICLR 2026 holds the world's first dedicated workshop on AI with Recursive Self-Improvement in Rio de Janeiro
    Source: https://recursive-workshop.github.io/conf 99%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFrontier labs grow agent workforces from thousands to >=100K
    How: At least one frontier lab (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind) discloses internal AI agent workforce of >=100,000 in research operations
    Source: Lab transparency disclosures; technical reportsconf 50%
  5. 2026-07-01 → 2026-11-30pendingFirst public benchmark showing AI-self-improvement >=2x baseline gain
    How: Public benchmark (HumanEval, ARC-AGI, GPQA) shows AI-self-improved model exceeding hand-tuned baseline by >=2x improvement rate
    Source: ICLR/NeurIPS 2026 papers; lab benchmarksconf 40%
  6. 2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMajor economy declares AI productivity inflection in 2026 GDP/productivity stats
    How: BEA, OECD, or central bank cites measurable AI-driven productivity inflection in 2026 official statistics (>=1% TFP uplift attributable to AI)
    Source: BEA productivity data; OECD economic outlookconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.8% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.053
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.046
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.033
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.041
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.033
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.032
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.019
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.005

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.690manifold🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-06-01
0.689manifold☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-05-01
0.681manifoldWill I get a girlfriend in the year 202615%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.671manifoldWill I be alive at the end of 2029?91%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.665manifoldWill I get a GF in the year of 202639%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.652manifoldWill I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?36%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.650manifoldWill I be in a serious, potentially-long-term relationship by the end of 2026?19%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.648manifoldWhat will I get in 2026 IMOmentionspending2026-06-04
0.626manifoldWill I complete Quicktakeshaven before August 202645%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.623manifoldWhen will Manifest 2026 have 10+ session videos available online?mentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Here's a tweet uh from Jimmy Ba, a co-founder at XAI. Uh recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months. 2026 is going to be insane and likely the busiest and most consequential year for the future of our species.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months. 2026 is going to be insane and likely the busiest and most consequential year for the future of our species.",
  "conv_cues": "likely to go live; likely the busiest and most consequential",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next 12 months / 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk states 'hard takeoff right now' at Abundance Summit 2026",
      "source": "https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-11",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Elon Musk publicly states AI is in hard takeoff phase, with full automation of AI loop expected by end-2026/2027"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Karpathy AutoResearch demonstrates RSI in production training",
      "source": "https://medium.com/codex/recursive-self-improvement-ae03d40e7cda",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://medium.com/codex/recursive-self-improvement-ae03d40e7cda",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Andrej Karpathy releases AutoResearch open-source agent that ran ~700 self-improvement experiments in 2 days yielding 11% LLM training speedup"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ICLR 2026 RSI workshop convenes (first-of-kind)",
      "source": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-26",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion"
... (truncated)