Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.
Verbatim quote
This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-03-15hitRentosertib (ISM001-055) becomes first AI-designed drug to receive INNHow: Insilico Medicine's AI-designed candidate receives official International Nonproprietary Name (INN) from WHOSource: Mayo Clinic Proceedings — Individualized Medicine in the Era of AIconf 95%Notes: HIT — Foundational milestone. AI-designed drug acceptance by drug-naming authority.
- 2025-09-30hitBenevolentAI partners with major pharma on patient-population-specific drugsHow: BenevolentAI announces partnership/program developing drugs tailored to specific patient genetic markersSource: Frontiers in Medicine — The expanding role of AI in personalised medicineconf 85%Notes: HIT — BenevolentAI confirmed partnerships with major pharma for population-specific drug design.
- 2025-06-30hitInsilico Chemistry42 candidates in clinical trialsHow: Insilico Medicine reports multiple AI-designed candidates (e.g. fibrosis program) in active clinical trialsSource: Frontiers in Medicine; Intuz industry analysisconf 90%Notes: HIT — Validates 'n=1 AI design → trials' progression.
- 2025-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst true n=1 personalized drug therapy approvedHow: FDA, EMA, or PMDA approves a fully personalized drug therapy designed specifically for a single patient using AISource: FDA approvals; npj Precision Oncology coverageconf 55%Notes: Pivotal validation point for n=1 → n=10B trajectory. Required new regulatory thinking already published.
- 2025-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingn>=10 documented n=1 AI-designed therapies in patientsHow: Peer-reviewed literature documents ≥10 case studies of AI-designed individual-patient therapies administered with measurable outcomesSource: Lancet, NEJM, npj Precision Oncology case reportsconf 60%Notes: Cascade — Wissner-Gross's 'stories will repeat' — each is an n=1 case study. Trajectory toward n=10B requires industrialization.
- 2026-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI-designed drug discovery time falls to <12 months consistentlyHow: Industry data shows median AI-designed drug discovery-to-IND timeline drops below 12 months for multiple programsSource: Nature Drug Discovery; IQVIA reportsconf 50%Notes: Cascade — Rentosertib: <30 months from discovery to human trials. Industrialization requires further compression toward sub-year.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.032 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.059 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.051 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | [Biology 2026-06] ktop $100-per-genome machine in second [248_028] Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. [248_032] First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be | pending |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.636 | arxiv | A Domain Incremental Continual Learning Benchmark for ICU Time Series Model Transportability | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.626 | arxiv | Foundation Models to Unlock Real-World Evidence from Nationwide Medical Claims | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.600 | arxiv | Domain Incremental Learning for Pandemic-Resilient Chest X-Ray Analysis | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.568 | arxiv | IndicMedDialog: A Parallel Multi-Turn Medical Dialogue Dataset for Accessible Healthcare in Indic Languages | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "n=10 billion treated",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "This is going to happen as n equals 1 over and over again until it's n= 10 billion.",
"conv_cues": "is going to happen",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Rentosertib (ISM001-055) becomes first AI-designed drug to receive INN",
"notes": "HIT — Foundational milestone. AI-designed drug acceptance by drug-naming authority.",
"source": "Mayo Clinic Proceedings — Individualized Medicine in the Era of AI",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/article/S0025-6196(25)00417-3/fulltext",
"expected_date": "2025-03-15",
"observed_date": "2025-03-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Insilico Medicine's AI-designed candidate receives official International Nonproprietary Name (INN) from WHO"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "BenevolentAI partners with major pharma on patient-population-specific drugs",
"notes": "HIT — BenevolentAI confirmed partnerships with major pharma for population-specific drug design.",
"source": "Frontiers in Medicine — The expanding role of AI in personalised medicine",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/medicine/articles/10.3389/fmed.2026.1795879/full",
"expected_date": "2025-07-02",
"observed_date": "2025-09-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2025-12-31",
"from": "2025-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "BenevolentAI announces partnership/program developing drugs tailored to specific patient genetic markers"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Insilico Chemistry42 candidates in clinical trials",
"notes": "HIT — Validates 'n=1 AI design → trials' progression.",
"source": "Frontiers in Medicine; Intuz industry analysis",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://www.intuz.com/blog/generative-ai-in-precision-medicine",
"expected_date": "2025-07-02",
"observed_date": "2025-06-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2025-12-31",
"from": "2025-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Insilico Medicine reports multiple AI-designed candidates (e.g. fibrosis program) in active clinical trials"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
... (truncated)