By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have
Verbatim quote
I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-09-30hitGitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches GA with autonomous task executionHow: GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches General Availability (announced September 2025) supporting autonomous multi-step tasksSource: https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claudeconf 99%
- 2026-06-01pendingGitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)How: GitHub Copilot officially launches usage-based billing model effective June 1, 2026Source: https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/conf 95%
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingTop 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market shareHow: Cursor + GitHub Copilot + Claude Code combined share of developers exceeds 70% per Stack Overflow Developer Survey or JetBrains State-of-Developer reportSource: https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/conf 85%
- 2026-12-31pendingManual code remains majority practice at end of 2026 — Diamandis falsifiedHow: Stack Overflow 2026 Developer Survey shows >50% of professional developers still write manual code as primary mode (contradicting prediction)Source: https://insights.stackoverflow.com/surveyconf 85%Notes: Counter-evidence milestone — Diamandis's 'no one writes code' is hyperbolic; documenting falsification path.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingManual code authoring drops below 30% of new commits at hyperscalersHow: Microsoft, Google, or Amazon discloses AI-assisted code (Copilot/Claude/Codex generation) exceeds 70% of new commits in production reposSource: https://github.com/features/copilotconf 45%Notes: Cascade — Diamandis's 'no manual code' claim requires hyperscaler-level adoption metrics.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.049 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.039 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.018 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | [Labor/Policy 2026-12] [241_011] By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill [231_053] Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what se [240_048] BLS employment reports; | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.712 | manifold | ☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.704 | manifold | 🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.685 | manifold | Will I lose my current job by the end of 2026? | 23% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.672 | manifold | Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026? | 27% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.666 | manifold | Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13] | 66% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.666 | manifold | Will @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026? | 63% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
| 0.664 | manifold | which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-24 |
| 0.661 | manifold | Will I make IMO in 2028 | 49% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.659 | manifold | How many StackOverflow questions in May 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.657 | manifold | Will 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "No one will ever do that again after the end of this year",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have",
"direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "end of 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches GA with autonomous task execution",
"source": "https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claude",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claude",
"expected_date": "2025-09-30",
"observed_date": "2025-09-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches General Availability (announced September 2025) supporting autonomous multi-step tasks"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)",
"source": "https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/",
"expected_date": "2026-06-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "GitHub Copilot officially launches usage-based billing model effective June 1, 2026"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market share",
"source": "https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/",
"expected_date": "2026-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Cursor + GitHub Copilot + Claude Code combined share of developers exceeds 70% per Stack Overflow Developer Survey or JetBrains State-of-Developer report"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "By end of 2026, no one will write code manually -
... (truncated)