← Cockpit
241_011predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
55.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 55.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2025-09-30hitGitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches GA with autonomous task execution
    How: GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches General Availability (announced September 2025) supporting autonomous multi-step tasks
    Source: https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claudeconf 99%
  2. 2026-06-01pendingGitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)
    How: GitHub Copilot officially launches usage-based billing model effective June 1, 2026
    Source: https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/conf 95%
  3. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingTop 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market share
    How: Cursor + GitHub Copilot + Claude Code combined share of developers exceeds 70% per Stack Overflow Developer Survey or JetBrains State-of-Developer report
    Source: https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/conf 85%
  4. 2026-12-31pendingManual code remains majority practice at end of 2026 — Diamandis falsified
    How: Stack Overflow 2026 Developer Survey shows >50% of professional developers still write manual code as primary mode (contradicting prediction)
    Source: https://insights.stackoverflow.com/surveyconf 85%
    Notes: Counter-evidence milestone — Diamandis's 'no one writes code' is hyperbolic; documenting falsification path.
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingManual code authoring drops below 30% of new commits at hyperscalers
    How: Microsoft, Google, or Amazon discloses AI-assisted code (Copilot/Claude/Codex generation) exceeds 70% of new commits in production repos
    Source: https://github.com/features/copilotconf 45%
    Notes: Cascade — Diamandis's 'no manual code' claim requires hyperscaler-level adoption metrics.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 56.4% → 55.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 58.2% → 56.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.065
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.056
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.046
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.6500.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.038

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.049
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.039
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.018
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.009
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Labor/Policy 2026-12] [241_011] By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill [231_053] Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what se [240_048] BLS employment reports;pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.712manifold☀️What will happen in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-05-01
0.704manifold🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-06-01
0.685manifoldWill I lose my current job by the end of 2026?23%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.672manifoldWill code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?27%mentionspending2026-05-13
0.666manifoldWill I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13]66%mentionspending2026-05-15
0.666manifoldWill @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?63%mentionspending2026-05-17
0.664manifoldwhich will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)mentionspending2026-05-24
0.661manifoldWill I make IMO in 202849%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.659manifoldHow many StackOverflow questions in May 2026?mentionspending2026-05-03
0.657manifoldWill 1USD>97INR before 10th June 2026?6%mentionspending2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "No one will ever do that again after the end of this year",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I wrote a ton of code when I was younger. No one will ever do that again after the end of this year. It'll be like riding a horse, you know, be like quaint skills that we all used to have",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "end of 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches GA with autonomous task execution",
      "source": "https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claude",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://docs.github.com/en/copilot/concepts/agents/anthropic-claude",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub Copilot Coding Agent reaches General Availability (announced September 2025) supporting autonomous multi-step tasks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GitHub Copilot transitions to usage-based billing (token-based)",
      "source": "https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.aimadetools.com/blog/github-copilot-usage-based-billing/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub Copilot officially launches usage-based billing model effective June 1, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Top 3 AI coding tools control 70%+ developer market share",
      "source": "https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://aiproductivity.ai/blog/github-copilot-vs-claude-code/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Cursor + GitHub Copilot + Claude Code combined share of developers exceeds 70% per Stack Overflow Developer Survey or JetBrains State-of-Developer report"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - 
... (truncated)