Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim)
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | It's 10 times safer to be on in a Tesla and FSD.
Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules
Verbatim quote
It's 10 times safer to be on in a Tesla and FSD.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.058 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.044 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.013 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.004 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.002 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | [Autonomous 2026-12] [243_044] Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules [243_043] Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K [AUT_013] Tesla Robotaxi metro launch cadence; unsupervised | pending |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "10x safer",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "It's 10 times safer to be on in a Tesla and FSD.",
"to_year": 2026,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "It's 10 times safer to be on in a Tesla and FSD.",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
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"source_id": "243_044",
"expected_date": "2026-07-28",
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},
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"observed_date": null
},
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"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
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"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "Transport",
"affiliation": "Moonshots podcast",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 243,
"granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-07-28",
"episode_date": "2026-03-31",
"parse_method": "RELATIVE fallback midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "Auto",
"episode_title": "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243",
"fau
... (truncated)