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241_006predictionAIAI-timing

Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
78.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom, right? It's like the biggest boom I've seen

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom, right? It's like the biggest boom I've seen

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 78.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 79%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z78.9%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 80.6% → 78.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z80.6%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 83.3% → 80.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z83.3%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 87.1% → 83.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.1%-4.9pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+16.7pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.833
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.16674,
  "inside_posterior": 0.83326,
  "validation_notes": "Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.83326,
  "resolution_evidence": "Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.920-0.174
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.9200.050-0.105
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.9200.050-0.093
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.9200.050-0.077
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.9200.050-0.067

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.203
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.202
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.159
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.140
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.126

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importSchmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom, right? It's like the biggest boom I've seen",
  "conv_cues": "biggest boom I've seen",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_006",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "former Google CEO",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 241,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.605921+00:00",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-24",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "241",
  "consensus_size": 16,
  "
... (truncated)