Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom, right? It's like the biggest boom I've seen
Verbatim quote
Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom, right? It's like the biggest boom I've seen
Resolution evidence
Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.16674,
"inside_posterior": 0.83326,
"validation_notes": "Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.83326,
"resolution_evidence": "Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.174 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.105 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.093 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.203 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.202 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.159 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.140 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.126 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Schmidt correct — 'everyone out of hardware and electricity' is widely reported as of Apr 2026. |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.618 | gdelt | usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,1057510.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.614 | gdelt | usa wyniki gigantow big tech pobily oczekiwania lecz wzbudzily niepokoje o skale wydatkow na ai,288224.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.568 | manifold | [short fuse] What was the source of the explosion-like sound heard in New England? [add responses] | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "Everybody's out of hardware, everyone's out of electricity. It's a real boom, right? It's like the biggest boom I've seen",
"conv_cues": "biggest boom I've seen",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "241_006",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "231_013",
"expected_date": "2027-06-26",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "232_055",
"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "CMQ_002",
"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "former Google CEO",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 241,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.605921+00:00",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-03-24",
"parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "AI",
"episode_title": "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"appears_in_eps": "241",
"consensus_size": 16,
"
... (truncated)