Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2. Now we will basically now Helix 2 can like go from like doing the logistics use case stationary to walking and moving and basically do like long horizon full body control.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2. Now we will basically now Helix 2 can like go from like doing the logistics use case stationary to walking and moving and basically do like long horizon full body control.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-02hitHelix 02 launches with full-body autonomous controlHow: Figure publicly releases Helix 02 demonstrating single neural system controlling walking, manipulation, and balance from pixels with kilohertz System 0 layerSource: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Figure announces Helix 02 with three-layer architectureconf 99%Notes: HIT — Helix 02 confirmed with System 0/1/2 architecture extending to full-body long-horizon control as predicted.
- 2026-02-02hitHelix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen taskHow: Figure publishes video evidence of Helix 02 completing 4-minute end-to-end dishwasher load/unload across full kitchen with zero human intervention or resetsSource: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Helix 02 long-horizon kitchen democonf 99%Notes: HIT — Believed longest-horizon, most complex autonomous humanoid task to date per Figure.
- 2026-03-01 → 2026-06-30overdueHelix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use caseHow: Figure 03 + Helix 02 deployed in BMW production line for stationary or mobile logistics tasks with public footageSource: Figure AI press releases, Brett Adcock X accountconf 85%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-08-31pendingHelix 02 home testing in unseen environments demonstratedHow: Figure releases footage of Helix 02 performing complete household chore sequence in completely unseen home environment without environment-specific fine-tuningSource: Figure AI press, Brett Adcock 2026 roadmap commitmentsconf 70%Notes: Adcock 2026 roadmap explicitly committed to long-horizon home tasks in unseen environments by year-end.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingRobot-built robot manufacturing line milestone (Figure 03 building Figure 03)How: Figure publishes footage of Figure 03 humanoid robots performing assembly tasks on Figure 03 production lineSource: Brett Adcock 2026 keynote (24-month robot-built-robot timeline)conf 55%Notes: Adcock target was 24 months from 2026 keynote; partial demonstration possible mid-2026.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"trf": 0.471374039803193,
"kappa": 0.7727,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Brett Adcock",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": 0.08279418571776744,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.5206867306961027,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"label": "Helix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use case",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure 03 + Helix 02 deployed in BMW production line for stationary or mobile logistics tasks with public footage"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.6700381721377648,
"outside_weight": 0.32996182786223516,
"posterior_prob": 0.4542500045098334,
"posterior_logit": -0.1835132699621344,
"predictor_brier": 0.00405,
"inside_posterior": 0.4542500045098334,
"blended_posterior": 0.4542500045098334,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
"predictor_n_resolved": 6
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.069 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.041 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.026 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.014 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.027 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.017 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.002 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.626 | manifold | Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance? | 53% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "if I could what do you see then going in 2026 here we got the you know next 11 and a half months what are you excited about we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2. Now we will basically now Helix 2 can like go from like doing the logistics use case stationary to walking and moving and basically do like long horizon full body control.",
"conv_cues": "we will",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026 (rest of year)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helix 02 launches with full-body autonomous control",
"notes": "HIT — Helix 02 confirmed with System 0/1/2 architecture extending to full-body long-horizon control as predicted.",
"source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Figure announces Helix 02 with three-layer architecture",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
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"source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen task",
"notes": "HIT — Believed longest-horizon, most complex autonomous humanoid task to date per Figure.",
"source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Helix 02 long-horizon kitchen demo",
"status": "hit",
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"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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... (truncated)