← Cockpit
229_007predictionRoboticsAI-timing

Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
47.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2. Now we will basically now Helix 2 can like go from like doing the logistics use case stationary to walking and moving and basically do like long horizon full body control.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2. Now we will basically now Helix 2 can like go from like doing the logistics use case stationary to walking and moving and basically do like long horizon full body control.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-02-02hitHelix 02 launches with full-body autonomous control
    How: Figure publicly releases Helix 02 demonstrating single neural system controlling walking, manipulation, and balance from pixels with kilohertz System 0 layer
    Source: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Figure announces Helix 02 with three-layer architectureconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Helix 02 confirmed with System 0/1/2 architecture extending to full-body long-horizon control as predicted.
  2. 2026-02-02hitHelix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen task
    How: Figure publishes video evidence of Helix 02 completing 4-minute end-to-end dishwasher load/unload across full kitchen with zero human intervention or resets
    Source: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Helix 02 long-horizon kitchen democonf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Believed longest-horizon, most complex autonomous humanoid task to date per Figure.
  3. 2026-03-01 → 2026-06-30overdueHelix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use case
    How: Figure 03 + Helix 02 deployed in BMW production line for stationary or mobile logistics tasks with public footage
    Source: Figure AI press releases, Brett Adcock X accountconf 85%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-08-31pendingHelix 02 home testing in unseen environments demonstrated
    How: Figure releases footage of Helix 02 performing complete household chore sequence in completely unseen home environment without environment-specific fine-tuning
    Source: Figure AI press, Brett Adcock 2026 roadmap commitmentsconf 70%
    Notes: Adcock 2026 roadmap explicitly committed to long-horizon home tasks in unseen environments by year-end.
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingRobot-built robot manufacturing line milestone (Figure 03 building Figure 03)
    How: Figure publishes footage of Figure 03 humanoid robots performing assembly tasks on Figure 03 production line
    Source: Brett Adcock 2026 keynote (24-month robot-built-robot timeline)conf 55%
    Notes: Adcock target was 24 months from 2026 keynote; partial demonstration possible mid-2026.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z47.6%+2.2pp
Network propagation: 45.4% → 47.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z45.4%-6.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.454 blend=0.454 LLR=-0.266 κ=0.77 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.471374039803193,
  "kappa": 0.7727,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Brett Adcock",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.08279418571776744,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5206867306961027,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.656795,
      "label": "Helix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use case",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure 03 + Helix 02 deployed in BMW production line for stationary or mobile logistics tasks with public footage"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6700381721377648,
  "outside_weight": 0.32996182786223516,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4542500045098334,
  "posterior_logit": -0.1835132699621344,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00405,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4542500045098334,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4542500045098334,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.26630745567990183,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 6
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z52.1%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 53.8% → 52.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.8%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

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killerTK01
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73.8%0.6000.050-0.026
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75.0%0.6000.050-0.018
killerTK14
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20.0%0.0500.600+0.014

Top outgoing (children)

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prereq232_055
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35.5%0.7000.050+0.011
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Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.626manifoldWill Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?53%mentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "if I could what do you see then going in 2026 here we got the you know next 11 and a half months what are you excited about we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we will build like our entire road map around Helix 2. Now we will basically now Helix 2 can like go from like doing the logistics use case stationary to walking and moving and basically do like long horizon full body control.",
  "conv_cues": "we will",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026 (rest of year)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix 02 launches with full-body autonomous control",
      "notes": "HIT — Helix 02 confirmed with System 0/1/2 architecture extending to full-body long-horizon control as predicted.",
      "source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Figure announces Helix 02 with three-layer architecture",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-02",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly releases Helix 02 demonstrating single neural system controlling walking, manipulation, and balance from pixels with kilohertz System 0 layer"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix 02 demonstrates 4-minute autonomous dishwasher kitchen task",
      "notes": "HIT — Believed longest-horizon, most complex autonomous humanoid task to date per Figure.",
      "source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Helix 02 long-horizon kitchen demo",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-02",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publishes video evidence of Helix 02 completing 4-minute end-to-end dishwasher load/unload across full kitchen with zero human intervention or resets"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix 02 deployed in BMW logistics commercial use case",
      "source": "Figure AI press releases, Brett Adcock X account",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
    
... (truncated)