US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar

US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | this year the US is on on target in 2026 I think to add 86 gigawatts of of new capacity uh to the to the grid, but 51% of that is solar.

this year the US is on on target in 2026 I think to add 86 gigawatts of of new capacity uh to the to the grid, but 51% of that is solar.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "86 GW total, 51% solar",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "this year the US is on on target in 2026 I think to add 86 gigawatts of of new capacity uh to the to the grid, but 51% of that is solar.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "this year the US is on on target in 2026 I think to add 86 gigawatts of of new capacity uh to the to the grid, but 51% of that is solar.",
  "conv_cues": "on target",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "EIA confirms 86 GW US 2026 capacity additions plan with 51% solar",
      "notes": "HIT — EIA published exact 86 GW figure and 51% solar share matching prediction. Mostaque's call confirmed at policy-plan level.",
      "source": "EIA Today in Energy — New U.S. electric generating capacity expected to reach record high in 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EIA Today in Energy publishes 2026 plan: 86 GW total, 43.4 GW solar (51%), 24 GW battery (28%), wind 14%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Solar additions reach 43.4 GW utility-scale planned for 2026 (60% YoY increase)",
      "source": "pv magazine — Solar and storage expected to drive 86 GW capacity surge",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/04/28/solar-and-storage-expected-to-drive-86-gw-capacity-surge-in-the-u-s-this-year/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EIA plan shows 43.4 GW utility-scale solar in 2026 vs 27 GW in 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_047",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Texas leads with 40% of new utility-scale solar (Tehuacana Creek 837 MW project)",
      "source": "Energy People Group / EIA — Record US Capacity Additions Led by Texas",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "
... (truncated)