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247_046predictionAIAI-timing

AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
55.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | this is $3 billion a day being invested in in the AI world and accelerating, right? We saw a billion in 25 um growing to 2 billion. Now we're heading towards three billion a day being invested in AI.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
this is $3 billion a day being invested in in the AI world and accelerating, right? We saw a billion in 25 um growing to 2 billion. Now we're heading towards three billion a day being invested in AI.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 55.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓
  1. 2026-04-30hitHyperscaler 2026 capex aggregates exceed $700B annualized
    How: Sum of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Oracle disclosed/guided 2026 capex >=$700B per Mag-7 earnings cycle
    Source: Yahoo Finance: Magnificent 7 earnings reveal AI spending surge — hyperscaler capex set to reach $725B in 2026conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — $725B / 365 = $1.99B/day on hyperscaler capex alone, before private + sovereign + startup AI investment.
  2. 2026-04-30hitMicrosoft single-quarter capex breaks $30B with AI revenue past $37B run-rate
    How: Microsoft fiscal Q3 2026 disclosed capex >=$30B and AI revenue annual run-rate >=$37B
    Source: Yahoo / MUFG hyperscaler capex 2026conf 95%
  3. 2026-04-30hitMeta raises full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125B+
    How: Meta Platforms 10-Q or earnings call confirms full-year 2026 capex guidance midpoint >=$125B
    Source: Yahoo Finance Mag-7 capex coverageconf 90%
  4. 2026-09-30pendingAggregate global AI investment crosses $1.1T annualized run-rate (~$3B/day)
    How: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, or comparable aggregator publishes 2026 global AI investment estimate >=$1.1T (hyperscalers + sovereign + private + venture)
    Source: Goldman Sachs: Why AI Companies May Invest More than $500 Billion in 2026conf 70%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCapex acceleration triggers credit-market stress event in IG-rated tech issuance
    How: IG corporate spreads on a Mag-7 hyperscaler widen by >=50bps in a single month, or an AI-related private credit fund reports >=10% NAV drawdown
    Source: Morgan Stanley AI macro outlookconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 56.4% → 55.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 58.2% → 56.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.065
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.056
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.046
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.6500.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.038

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.049
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.039
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.018
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.009
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.720manifoldGlobal AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026mentionspending2026-05-14
0.702gdeltmeta beats estimates but soaring ai spending rattles investors 1091449.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.693manifoldWill at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?74%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.651gdeltbig tech earnings microsoft ai investment capex plan 2026 4mentionspending2026-04-30
0.650gdeltmicrosoft profits jump cloud ai 013826928.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.628manifoldWill Litecoin go up in the next 24 hours?34%mentionspending2026-05-19
0.623manifoldWill Ethereum go up in the next 24 hours?32%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.618manifoldWill Chainlink go up in the next 24 hours?55%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.617manifoldHow much additional mana will be printed by the 2x trader bonuses in 7 days? (total trader bonuses divided by 2)mentionspending2026-05-15
0.615manifoldWill Dogecoin reach 106% of its current price in the next 24 hours?11%mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$3 billion per day",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we're heading towards three billion a day being invested in AI. That's amazing",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "this is $3 billion a day being invested in in the AI world and accelerating, right? We saw a billion in 25 um growing to 2 billion. Now we're heading towards three billion a day being invested in AI.",
  "conv_cues": "heading towards",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 capex aggregates exceed $700B annualized",
      "notes": "HIT — $725B / 365 = $1.99B/day on hyperscaler capex alone, before private + sovereign + startup AI investment.",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance: Magnificent 7 earnings reveal AI spending surge — hyperscaler capex set to reach $725B in 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/magnificent-7-earnings-rush-reveals-ai-spending-surge-with-hyperscaler-capex-set-to-reach-725-billion-in-2026-224901707.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Sum of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Oracle disclosed/guided 2026 capex >=$700B per Mag-7 earnings cycle"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Microsoft single-quarter capex breaks $30B with AI revenue past $37B run-rate",
      "source": "Yahoo / MUFG hyperscaler capex 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/hyperscalers-hit-700-billion-2026-111243744.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Microsoft fiscal Q3 2026 disclosed capex >=$30B and AI revenue annual run-rate >=$37B"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Meta raises full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125B+",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance Mag-7 capex coverage",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/magnificent-7-earnings-rush-reveals-ai-spending-surge-with-hyperscaler-capex-set-to-reach-725-billion-in-2026-224901707.html",
      "expected_d
... (truncated)