AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional

AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | we're seeing is a, you know, phase one success rate of these AI developed drugs at 85% compared to 52%. And phase 2 success rates of AI developed drugs at 70% compared to 38%.

we're seeing is a, you know, phase one success rate of these AI developed drugs at 85% compared to 52%. And phase 2 success rates of AI developed drugs at 70% compared to 38%.

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{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "85% vs 52% phase 1; 70% vs 38% phase 2",
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  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "phase one success rate of these AI developed drugs at 85% compared to 52%",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we're seeing is a, you know, phase one success rate of these AI developed drugs at 85% compared to 52%. And phase 2 success rates of AI developed drugs at 70% compared to 38%.",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Current observation",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Recursion / Exscientia setback contrasts with Insilico success",
      "notes": "HIT — Recursion failure provides counter-evidence; AI-drug discovery has both successes (Insilico) and failures (Recursion).",
      "source": "Recursion (RXRX) press release / 8-K from May 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Recursion discontinues lead candidate REC-994 for cerebral cavernous malformation citing efficacy non-confirmation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Insilico Medicine Phase IIa positive results (TNIK inhibitor for IPF)",
      "notes": "HIT — first AI-designed molecule with both safety and efficacy in controlled trial. Validates 80-90% Phase 1 success rate framing.",
      "source": "https://www.morningglorysciences.com/en/from-beginner-to-expert-ai-in-drug-discovery-a-definitive-guide-from-lab-to-market-extra-chapter/ — Insilico TNIK inhibitor showed 98.4 mL FVC improvement vs 20.3 mL decline in placebo",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.morningglorysciences.com/en/from-beginner-to-expert-ai-in-drug-discovery-a-definitive-guide-from-lab-to-market-extra-chapter/",
      "expected_date": "2025-06-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Insilico Medicine publishes positive Phase IIa data for ISM001-055 (rentosertib) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with measurable efficacy"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Industry analyst report confirms 80-90% AI-drug Phase 1 success rate",
      "notes": "HIT — multiple sources confirm 80-90% Phase 1 success vs 52% baseline. Diamandis's 85% claim within range.",
      "source": "https://www.humai.blog/ai-drugs-reach-the-clinic-2026-is-the-year-of-the-first-large-scale-test/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.humai.blog/ai-drugs-reach-the-clinic-2026-is-the-year-of-the-first-large-scale-test/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Published research shows AI-discovered drugs have Phase 1 success rate 80-90% vs 52% historical baseline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
    
... (truncated)