COD_BIO_002predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-drug-clinical

An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

50.0%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2025-03-31 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending

2025-09-10overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-01-28overdueISM8969 FDA IND clearance
How: FDA accepts IND for Isomorphic ISM8969; documented in clinicaltrials.gov listing or Isomorphic press release
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
2026-02-20overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-08-02pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst patient dosed in Isomorphic Phase 1 oncology trial
How: ClinicalTrials.gov record updates to recruiting/dosing; Isomorphic / Alphabet press release confirms first-patient-in
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
2027-01-13pendingAn AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027
2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingPeer AI-designed drugs (Insilico, Recursion, BenevolentAI) report Phase 1 progress
How: At least one named AI-design-claimed drug from Insilico/Recursion/BenevolentAI/Exscientia portfolio publishes Phase 1 readout in 2026-2027 window per ClinicalTrials.gov + 10-Q
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
2027-06-30pendingPhase 1 dose escalation (first dose level) completion
How: Isomorphic discloses initial Phase 1 cohort safety data / DLT-window completion at major oncology meeting (ASCO, ESMO) or in 8-K type disclosure
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingInitial Phase 1 readout (top-line efficacy / safety)
How: Isomorphic publishes top-line Phase 1 RP2D, ORR, and PFS data; defines whether 'completes Phase 1 by end 2027' resolves hit or miss
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z50.0%+1.5pp

Network propagation: 48.5% → 50.0%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z48.5%+3.3pp

Network propagation: 45.2% → 48.5%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.2%+7.2pp

Network propagation: 37.9% → 45.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z37.9%+13.6pp

Network propagation: 24.3% → 37.9%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z24.3%-25.7pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.243 blend=0.243 LLR=-1.136 κ=0.95 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6040579350443616,
  "kappa": 0.95,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0,
  "bayes_factor": "3.1:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.95,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.38519185270275613,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-10",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.9025,
      "label": "ISM8969 FDA IND clearance",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://creati.ai/ai-news/2026-02-14/deepmind-ai-cancer-drug-clinical-trials-2026-demis-hassabis/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.36593226006761836,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-28",
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA accepts IND for Isomorphic ISM8969; documented in clinicaltrials.gov listing or Isomorphic press release"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.95,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.38519185270275613,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-20",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.5771594454689468,
  "outside_weight": 0.4228405545310532,
  "posterior_prob": 0.24299739611385987,
  "posterior_logit": -1.1363159654731305,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.24299739611385987,
  "blended_posterior": 0.24299739611385987,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.1363159654731305,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

5 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (5)

GOOGL LLY NVS RXRX SDGR

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	247_041	AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional	Biotech/Longevity	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	Isomorphic Labs - $600M funding to advance therapeutic programs into the clinic	—	mentions	pending	2025-03-31
0.661	arxiv	AIM-DDI: A Model-Agnostic Multimodal Integration Module for Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-14
0.659	arxiv	OOD-GraphLLM: Graph Large Language Model for Out-of-Distribution Generalized Drug Synergy Prediction	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.659	arxiv	BioResearcher: Scenario-Guided Multi-Agent for Translational Medicine	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.651	arxiv	Optimizing Social Utility in Sequential Experiments	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.650	arxiv	TheraAgent: Self-Improving Therapeutic Agent for Precise and Comprehensive Treatment Planning	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.640	arxiv	Site4Drug: Predicting Drug-Binding Target Sites with an AI Agent	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-01
0.636	arxiv	What's in a Name? Morphological Shortcuts by LLMs in Pharmacology	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.632	arxiv	Recurrent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Chemotherapy Control under Partial Observability	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.632	arxiv	Treatment-Conditioned Diffusion for Forecasting Neurodegenerative Disease Progression	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-10",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ISM8969 FDA IND clearance",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://creati.ai/ai-news/2026-02-14/deepmind-ai-cancer-drug-clinical-trials-2026-demis-hassabis/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-28",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA accepts IND for Isomorphic ISM8969; documented in clinicaltrials.gov listing or Isomorphic press release"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-20",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First patient dosed in Isomorphic Phase 1 oncology trial",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/isomorphic-labs-prepares-trials-ai-designed-drugs/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "ClinicalTrials.gov record updates to recruiting/dosing; Isomorphic / Alphabet press release confirms first-patient-in"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_BIO_002",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Peer AI-designed drugs (Insilico, Recursion, BenevolentAI) report Phase 1 progress",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.shashi.co/2026/04/isomorphic-labs-is-about-to-find-out-if.html",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least one named AI-design-claimed drug from Insilico/Recursion/BenevolentAI/Exscientia portfolio publishes Phase 1 readout in 2026-2027 window per ClinicalTrials.gov + 10-Q"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Phase 1 dose escalation (first dose level) completion",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://mlq.ai/news/isomorphic-labs-launches-human-trials-for-ai-designed-drugs/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research
... (truncated)