Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026)
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#244 "Uber's Robotaxi Playbook, End of Human Driving & $10B Bet on Robots | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO)" · source
Prediction text
Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | We cash flow. We're going to cash flow $10 billion this year.
Verbatim quote
We cash flow. We're going to cash flow $10 billion this year.
Resolution evidence
Uber 2026 cash flow $10B target. Q4 2025 actuals: ~$2B free cash flow/quarter. On-track but depends on Q2-Q4 continuation.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.049 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.039 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.018 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.629 | manifold | Will ChatGPT personal finance release for Plus Plans in 2026? | 71% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.623 | manifold | US Gas Price on May 1 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.620 | gdelt | spotify spot q1 2026 earnings 160148377.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.617 | manifold | Will US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026? | 46% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.615 | manifold | Will I get any money again from manifold this year? | 63% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.612 | gdelt | kforce inc q1 2026 earnings 123000580.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.610 | manifold | Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026? | 57% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.609 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.609 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.608 | manifold | Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in June 2026? | 16% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "$10 billion",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "You know, Peter, you were talking about when we joined the company, we were losing $4 billion. Like if we made a decision and we lost a billion dollars on that decision, it would be a freaking disaster. You know, we cash flow. We're going to cash flow $10 billion this year. So, we should be taking big bets.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "We cash flow. We're going to cash flow $10 billion this year.",
"conv_cues": "going to",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
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},
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{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
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"source_id": "244_032",
"expected_date": "2026-10-05",
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{
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"status": "pending",
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"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "CMQ_002",
"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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{
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"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "Stocks",
"affiliation": "Uber",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 244,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-10-05",
"episode_date": "2026-0
... (truncated)