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241_024predictionSpaceAI-timing

Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
54.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Getting heat off of it because you don't have oxygen, and you also have radiation issues. Yeah. Those have to get addressed

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
Getting heat off of it because you don't have oxygen, and you also have radiation issues. Yeah. Those have to get addressed

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Heat dissipation / radiation research published (UPenn tether architecture Jan 2026; Nature Electronics Oct 2025 paper).

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 54.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓
  1. 2026-01-11hitAxiom orbital data-center nodes reach LEO (Jan 2026)
    How: Successful deployment of first two Axiom orbital data-center nodes confirmed by Axiom and SpaceX manifest.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  2. 2026-10-31pendingStarcloud-2 launch with onboard NVIDIA Blackwell GPU
    How: Confirmed orbital deployment of Starcloud-2 with public telemetry showing GPU compute online; covered by primary press (TechCrunch / Starcloud blog).
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst peer-reviewed thermal/radiation results from on-orbit GPU compute
    How: Published paper, technical brief, or detailed operator post-mortem describing measured thermal-dissipation budget and SEU/TID rates from an on-orbit GPU/AI accelerator payload.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingRadiation-hardened or rad-tolerant AI accelerator product announced
    How: NVIDIA, AMD, BAE, or a startup announces a rad-tolerant variant intended for orbital/lunar AI compute, with documented TID/SEU specs.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingOperational orbital data-center reports >=10 kW continuous compute power
    How: Operator (Starcloud, SpaceX, Google Suncatcher) reports a single satellite/cluster sustaining >=10 kW of compute power for >=30 days, validating heat-rejection at AI-scale.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 55.3% → 54.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z55.3%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 57.4% → 55.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z57.4%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 60.4% → 57.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.4%-4.6pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.650-0.100
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6500.050-0.092
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.053
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.050
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.045

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.041
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.030
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.011
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.002
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.001

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.593arxivDiffusion of multiple conserved charges from entropy productionmentionspending2026-06-04
0.580arxivHawking Temperature, Sparsity and Energy Emission Rate of Regular Black Holes Supported by Primordial Dark Mattermentionspending2026-05-06
0.555arxivThermodiffusive coupled-transport phenomena in dense quark mattermentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "challenges remain",
  "context": "Getting heat off of it... radiation issues... Those have to get addressed",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Getting heat off of it because you don't have oxygen, and you also have radiation issues. Yeah. Those have to get addressed",
  "conv_cues": "have to get addressed",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Axiom orbital data-center nodes reach LEO (Jan 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/orbital-data-center-nodes-launch-space-computing-infrastructure-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-11",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Successful deployment of first two Axiom orbital data-center nodes confirmed by Axiom and SpaceX manifest."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starcloud-2 launch with onboard NVIDIA Blackwell GPU",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/starcloud-raises-170-million-series-ato-build-data-centers-in-space/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Confirmed orbital deployment of Starcloud-2 with public telemetry showing GPU compute online; covered by primary press (TechCrunch / Starcloud blog)."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First peer-reviewed thermal/radiation results from on-orbit GPU compute",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confide
... (truncated)