241_035predictionAIAI-timing

Maybe one frontier AI company in India

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

35.3%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

2/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

8 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Maybe one frontier AI company in India | There might be one in India

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"

There might be one in India

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0064

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱

2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-29hitTraining runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.
2026-04-29hitAnthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
2026-04-29hit2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.
2026-04-29hitRecursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
2026-05-01 → 2026-06-21overdueSarvam AI sovereign LLM v1 public release
How: Sarvam 70B+ parameter foundation model released with public benchmarks (MMLU, IndicBench) under IndiaAI Mission
Source: IndiaAI Mission Sarvam selection 2025; ibtimes 2026conf 55%
2026-04-30 → 2026-06-21overdueIndiaAI Mission compute capacity online (>=10K GPU H100-equivalent)
How: IndiaAI MeitY tender confirms >=10,000 H100-equivalent GPUs operational across selected AI Centres
Source: IndiaAI Mission government schemeconf 50%
2026-06-21pendingMaybe one frontier AI company in India
2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingIndian AI startup raises round at >=$1B valuation
How: Sarvam, Krutrim, or comparable Indian frontier AI startup completes round at >=$1B post-money valuation, publicly disclosed
Source: training-window inference; restofworld.orgconf 35%
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndian model in top-25 of public LLM leaderboard (LMArena, HELM)
How: LMArena Elo or HELM ranks an India-built model (Sarvam/Krutrim/BharatGen) in top 25 globally
Source: LMArena public leaderboardconf 30%
2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndia AI Impact Summit follow-on commits >$50B private investment by year-end 2026
How: MeitY/PMO press release confirms cumulative private AI investment commitments crossing $50B following 2026 Summit
Source: India AI Impact Summit 2026 announcementsconf 40%
2027-06-26pendingMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2028-09-07pendingBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.
2033-07-30pendingRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.
2033-08-10pendingASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-03T22:11:45Z35.3%-6.9pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.353 blend=0.353 LLR=-0.293 κ=0.69 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.8991436897318007,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Eric Schmidt",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.3115102846451738,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4227461383892443,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.37812500000000004,
      "label": "Sarvam AI sovereign LLM v1 public release",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com.au/indias-top-10-ai-companies-2026-sarvam-ai-krutrim-lead-sovereign-push-amid-29b-funding-boom-1866020",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.15331649400339967,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-26",
      "measurement_criterion": "Sarvam 70B+ parameter foundation model released with public benchmarks (MMLU, IndicBench) under IndiaAI Mission"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.34375,
      "label": "IndiaAI Mission compute capacity online (>=10K GPU H100-equivalent)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/india-ai-mission-infrastructure-models/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.1393786309121815,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-26",
      "measurement_criterion": "IndiaAI MeitY tender confirms >=10,000 H100-equivalent GPUs operational across selected AI Centres"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3705994171877395,
  "outside_weight": 0.6294005828122605,
  "posterior_prob": 0.35338215274574064,
  "posterior_logit": -0.604205409560755,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0064,
  "inside_posterior": 0.35338215274574064,
  "blended_posterior": 0.35338215274574064,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.29269512491558114,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.3%-1.0pp

Network propagation: 43.3% → 42.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.3%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 44.8% → 43.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.8%-2.1pp

Network propagation: 46.9% → 44.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.9%-3.1pp

Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.102
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.079
killer	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	20.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.057
prereq	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross	78.1%	0.500	0.050	+0.044
prereq	SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei	76.9%	0.500	0.050	+0.039

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross	35.4%	0.620	0.050	-0.088
prereq	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis	35.9%	0.650	0.050	-0.081
prereq	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil	39.2%	0.750	0.050	-0.077
prereq	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman	31.4%	0.550	0.050	-0.074
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	-0.058

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	SEM_008	Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.	AI	—
prereq	238_009	Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)	AI	—
prereq	234_012	Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_042	2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.	AI/Agents	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	235_030	Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	241_043	ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade	AI	—
prereq	231_013	Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.	AI	—
prereq	CMQ_002	By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.	AI	—

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 in India",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "There might be one in India",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "There might be one in India",
  "conv_cues": "might be",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sarvam AI sovereign LLM v1 public release",
      "source": "IndiaAI Mission Sarvam selection 2025; ibtimes 2026",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com.au/indias-top-10-ai-companies-2026-sarvam-ai-krutrim-lead-sovereign-push-amid-29b-funding-boom-1866020",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-26",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-03T22:11:45.571008+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-21",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Sarvam 70B+ parameter foundation model released with public benchmarks (MMLU, IndicBench) under IndiaAI Mission"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IndiaAI Mission compute capacity online (>=10K GPU H100-equivalent)",
      "source": "IndiaAI Mission government scheme",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/india-ai-mission-infrastructure-models/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-26",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-03T22:11:45.571008+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-21",
        "from": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IndiaAI MeitY tender confirms >=10,000 H100-equivalent GPUs operational across selected AI Centres"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Maybe one frontier AI company in India",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_035",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Indian AI startup raises round at
... (truncated)