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246_025predictionAIAI-timing

Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).

Predictor: Sam Altman · ep#246 "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | Could well be a world shaking cyber attack this year that would get people's attention. It sounds like you agree with that. >> I think that's totally possible.

Verbatim quote

From episode "SpaceX Goes Public, Claude's Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246"
Could well be a world shaking cyber attack this year that would get people's attention. It sounds like you agree with that. >> I think that's totally possible.

Predictor: Sam Altman

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0625
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Sam Altman is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingSam Altman publishes follow-up cyberattack warning at congressional hearing or major venue
    How: Sam Altman delivers cybersecurity-focused speech at congressional testimony, RSA, Black Hat, or major White House summit reiterating world-shaking cyberattack risk
    Source: CoinDesk — OpenAI CEO urges US to prepare for AI superintelligence risks (April 6, 2026)conf 75%
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingOpenAI / Anthropic publish public model misuse data showing AI-aided cyber campaigns
    How: Frontier lab transparency report documents nation-state or organized criminal use of frontier model for cyber campaign development
    Source: Anthropic / OpenAI threat report cadence — ongoingconf 95%
    Notes: Already routine — Anthropic publishes quarterly misuse reports, OpenAI publishes annual.
  3. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMajor nation-state-attributed AI-augmented cyberattack on critical infrastructure
    How: CISA, NCSC, or equivalent publishes attribution of a successful AI-augmented attack on power grid, financial system, or healthcare network with multi-state impact
    Source: UniLad — Sam Altman confirms world-shaking cyberattack 'totally possible' (April 8, 2026)conf 40%
    Notes: Direct verification — exactly the event Altman warned about.
  4. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingWhite House announces National AI Cybersecurity Initiative with frontier-lab partnership
    How: White House issues executive order or initiative naming OpenAI, Anthropic, Google as 'trusted access' partners for AI cyber defense
    Source: Coindesk — Altman urging US preparation for AI risksconf 50%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCybersecurity insurance pricing for AI-related risks rises >50% YoY
    How: Marsh, Aon, or AM Best publishes data showing >50% YoY increase in cyber insurance premiums tied to AI-augmented attack risk
    Source: Anticipated industry dataconf 60%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.8% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.053
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.046
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.033
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.041
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.033
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.032
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.019
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.005

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.709manifoldWill there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?67%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.680manifoldWhen will we see terrorism against AI?mentionspending2026-04-27
0.671manifoldIn which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?mentionspending2026-05-08
0.667manifoldwill there be a major linux virus in 2026?16%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.660manifoldWhen will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack?mentionspending2026-04-28
0.645manifoldWill code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?27%mentionspending2026-05-13
0.643manifoldNew pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]10%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.637polymarketWill the US strike 6 countries in 2026?0%mentionspending2025-11-12
0.637polymarketWill the US strike 8 countries in 2026?13%mentionspending2025-11-12
0.633manifoldSam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 203011%mentionspending2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Altman agreed when interviewer suggested it",
  "context": "Could well be a world shaking cyber attack this year that would get people's attention. It sounds like you agree with that. >> I think that's totally possible. Yes.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Could well be a world shaking cyber attack this year that would get people's attention. It sounds like you agree with that. >> I think that's totally possible.",
  "conv_cues": "totally possible",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sam Altman publishes follow-up cyberattack warning at congressional hearing or major venue",
      "source": "CoinDesk — OpenAI CEO urges US to prepare for AI superintelligence risks (April 6, 2026)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/06/openai-ceo-urges-u-s-to-prepare-for-ai-superintelligence-risks-and-gains",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Sam Altman delivers cybersecurity-focused speech at congressional testimony, RSA, Black Hat, or major White House summit reiterating world-shaking cyberattack risk"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "246_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI / Anthropic publish public model misuse data showing AI-aided cyber campaigns",
      "notes": "Already routine — Anthropic publishes quarterly misuse reports, OpenAI publishes annual.",
      "source": "Anthropic / OpenAI threat report cadence — ongoing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
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      "measurement_criterion": "Frontier lab transparency report documents nation-state or organized criminal use of frontier model for cyber campaign development"
    },
    {
      "kind": 
... (truncated)