Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | So we can like now like finish the whole room which is important. And next we're going to graduate to like basically the full full house.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
So we can like now like finish the whole room which is important. And next we're going to graduate to like basically the full full house.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-15hitHelix 02 demonstrates room-scale autonomy (dishwasher 4-min end-to-end)How: Figure publishes video of Helix 02 unloading and reloading a dishwasher across a full-sized kitchen as a 4-minute end-to-end autonomous task with no resetsSource: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Introducing Helix 02: Full-Body Autonomyconf 99%Notes: HIT — Helix 02 demonstrated room-scale autonomy precondition for full-house claim.
- 2026-03-22hitFigure 03 demonstrates multi-room autonomous tidy-up (toys + cleaning)How: Figure publishes video of humanoid identifying misplaced toys, tossing into bin, spraying and wiping table across a living room without resetsSource: Figure AI viral demo March 2026 reported by humanoid robotics outletsconf 92%Notes: HIT — March 2026 viral video shows multi-task multi-zone autonomy beyond single-room scope.
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure publicly demonstrates full-house multi-room autonomous task chainHow: Figure publishes video of single Helix-driven session that traverses ≥3 distinct rooms (e.g., kitchen + living room + laundry) executing different tasks with no human intervention or resetsSource: Figure AI public communications, Brett Adcock X accountconf 55%Notes: Adcock acknowledged full-home autonomy is 'a big push' for 2026 — base case is partial demonstration in target window, full-stack later.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingHelix model handles novel multi-floor / staircase navigationHow: Public video shows Figure 03 ascending or descending stairs autonomously while continuing a household task chain (a hard prerequisite for full-house autonomy)Source: Figure AI roadmap public statementsconf 40%Notes: Stair traversal is an open hard problem and the canonical full-house gate.
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFigure 03 deployed to private home pilot customer with daily multi-room workloadHow: Figure announces or third-party reports document a Figure 03 unit installed in a residential home running a recurring daily routine spanning ≥2 roomsSource: Figure AI press, Brett Adcock public statementsconf 45%Notes: Figure has stated broader home availability target late 2026.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.082 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.036 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.044 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.008 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.622 | manifold | Which of these will I achieve? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "And next we're going to graduate to like basically the full full house.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "So we can like now like finish the whole room which is important. And next we're going to graduate to like basically the full full house.",
"conv_cues": "going to graduate",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "next (near-term)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helix 02 demonstrates room-scale autonomy (dishwasher 4-min end-to-end)",
"notes": "HIT — Helix 02 demonstrated room-scale autonomy precondition for full-house claim.",
"source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02 — Introducing Helix 02: Full-Body Autonomy",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-02",
"expected_date": "2026-03-15",
"observed_date": "2026-03-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure publishes video of Helix 02 unloading and reloading a dishwasher across a full-sized kitchen as a 4-minute end-to-end autonomous task with no resets"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 demonstrates multi-room autonomous tidy-up (toys + cleaning)",
"notes": "HIT — March 2026 viral video shows multi-task multi-zone autonomy beyond single-room scope.",
"source": "Figure AI viral demo March 2026 reported by humanoid robotics outlets",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.92,
"source_url": "https://blog.robozaps.com/b/figure-03-review",
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": "2026-03-22",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure publishes video of humanoid identifying misplaced toys, tossing into bin, spraying and wiping table across a living room without resets"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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},
{
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"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "234_012",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "229_006",
"expected_date": "2026-06-17",
"observed_d
... (truncated)