Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | you should stop everything else you're doing in the university right now and design a course for freshman men and women uh uh who starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class
Verbatim quote
you should stop everything else you're doing in the university right now and design a course for freshman men and women uh uh who starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-09-01pendingTiffin University launches BS in AI and Prompt Engineering for Fall 2026 freshmenHow: Tiffin University AIPE bachelor's program enrolls first cohort of on-campus freshmen for Fall 2026 semesterSource: https://www.tiffin.edu/academics/school-of-science-tech-health/artificial-intelligence-and-prompt-engineering-aipe/conf 95%Notes: First full undergrad degree program explicitly named for prompt engineering — matches Schmidt's call.
- 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-30pending5+ R1 universities require AI/prompt-engineering coursework for incoming freshmenHow: At least 5 R1 (Carnegie classification) US universities publish a 2026-2027 catalog requirement that all incoming freshmen complete an AI/LLM-literacy or prompt-engineering courseSource: University course catalogs; Inside Higher Ed reportingconf 40%Notes: Schmidt called for this aggressively; partial adoption likely (electives common, mandatory rare).
- 2026-09-15pendingNC State / Ohio State / Columbia continue executive-ed prompt-engineering programs into 2026-27How: NC State Lifelong Learning, OSU Fisher, and Columbia all keep prompt-engineering programs active in their 2026 fall catalogsSource: University extension/exec-ed catalog publicationsconf 85%
- 2026-12-31pendingCoursera/edX prompt-engineering-related enrollments cross 5M cumulativeHow: Coursera or edX publicly disclose >=5M cumulative enrollments across prompt-engineering & generative AI coursesSource: https://www.coursera.org/courses?query=prompt+engineeringconf 70%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI literacy embedded in K-12/freshman-orientation curricula in 3+ statesHow: At least 3 US state education departments publish standards requiring AI/prompt literacy in K-12 or higher-ed orientationSource: State Department of Education curriculum standardsconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.091 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.039 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.020 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.015 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | [Labor/Policy 2026-09] [241_047] Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all | pending |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.590 | manifold | Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester? | 90% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "1 semester",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "aspirational proposal, universities oppose it",
"context": "starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "you should stop everything else you're doing in the university right now and design a course for freshman men and women uh uh who starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "September 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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},
{
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},
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"source_id": "238_009",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Tiffin University launches BS in AI and Prompt Engineering for Fall 2026 freshmen",
"notes": "First full undergrad degree program explicitly named for prompt engineering — matches Schmidt's call.",
"source": "https://www.tiffin.edu/academics/school-of-science-tech-health/artificial-intelligence-and-prompt-engineering-aipe/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.tiffin.edu/academics/school-of-science-tech-health/artificial-intelligence-and-prompt-engineering-aipe/",
"expected_date": "2026-09-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Tiffin University AIPE bachelor's program enrolls first cohort of on-campus freshmen for Fall 2026 semester"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "5+ R1 universities require AI/prompt-engineering coursework for incoming freshmen",
"notes": "Schmidt called for this aggressively; partial adoption likely (electives common, mandatory rare).",
"source": "University course catalogs; Inside Higher Ed reporting",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2026-09-07",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2026-08-15"
},
"measurement_criterion": "At least 5 R1 (Carnegie classification) US universities publish a 2026-2027 catalog requirement that all incoming freshmen complete an AI/LLM-literacy or prompt-engineering course"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "NC State / Ohio State / Columbia continu
... (truncated)