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241_047predictionEducationAI-timing

Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-09-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | you should stop everything else you're doing in the university right now and design a course for freshman men and women uh uh who starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
you should stop everything else you're doing in the university right now and design a course for freshman men and women uh uh who starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-09-01pendingTiffin University launches BS in AI and Prompt Engineering for Fall 2026 freshmen
    How: Tiffin University AIPE bachelor's program enrolls first cohort of on-campus freshmen for Fall 2026 semester
    Source: https://www.tiffin.edu/academics/school-of-science-tech-health/artificial-intelligence-and-prompt-engineering-aipe/conf 95%
    Notes: First full undergrad degree program explicitly named for prompt engineering — matches Schmidt's call.
  2. 2026-08-15 → 2026-09-30pending5+ R1 universities require AI/prompt-engineering coursework for incoming freshmen
    How: At least 5 R1 (Carnegie classification) US universities publish a 2026-2027 catalog requirement that all incoming freshmen complete an AI/LLM-literacy or prompt-engineering course
    Source: University course catalogs; Inside Higher Ed reportingconf 40%
    Notes: Schmidt called for this aggressively; partial adoption likely (electives common, mandatory rare).
  3. 2026-09-15pendingNC State / Ohio State / Columbia continue executive-ed prompt-engineering programs into 2026-27
    How: NC State Lifelong Learning, OSU Fisher, and Columbia all keep prompt-engineering programs active in their 2026 fall catalogs
    Source: University extension/exec-ed catalog publicationsconf 85%
  4. 2026-12-31pendingCoursera/edX prompt-engineering-related enrollments cross 5M cumulative
    How: Coursera or edX publicly disclose >=5M cumulative enrollments across prompt-engineering & generative AI courses
    Source: https://www.coursera.org/courses?query=prompt+engineeringconf 70%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI literacy embedded in K-12/freshman-orientation curricula in 3+ states
    How: At least 3 US state education departments publish standards requiring AI/prompt literacy in K-12 or higher-ed orientation
    Source: State Department of Education curriculum standardsconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.6%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.8% → 50.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.8%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 53.7% → 51.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.7%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6000.050-0.091
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.048
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.039
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.038

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.020
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.019
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.015
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.010
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-09-30[Labor/Policy 2026-09] [241_047] Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for allpending

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.590manifoldWill I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester?90%mentionspending2026-05-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 semester",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "aspirational proposal, universities oppose it",
  "context": "starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "you should stop everything else you're doing in the university right now and design a course for freshman men and women uh uh who starting in September, which is a prompt engineering class",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "September 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tiffin University launches BS in AI and Prompt Engineering for Fall 2026 freshmen",
      "notes": "First full undergrad degree program explicitly named for prompt engineering — matches Schmidt's call.",
      "source": "https://www.tiffin.edu/academics/school-of-science-tech-health/artificial-intelligence-and-prompt-engineering-aipe/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.tiffin.edu/academics/school-of-science-tech-health/artificial-intelligence-and-prompt-engineering-aipe/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tiffin University AIPE bachelor's program enrolls first cohort of on-campus freshmen for Fall 2026 semester"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "5+ R1 universities require AI/prompt-engineering coursework for incoming freshmen",
      "notes": "Schmidt called for this aggressively; partial adoption likely (electives common, mandatory rare).",
      "source": "University course catalogs; Inside Higher Ed reporting",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-07",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-08-15"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least 5 R1 (Carnegie classification) US universities publish a 2026-2027 catalog requirement that all incoming freshmen complete an AI/LLM-literacy or prompt-engineering course"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NC State / Ohio State / Columbia continu
... (truncated)