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240_056predictionAIAI-timing

Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
54.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31
Edges in / out
3 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) | Enthropic is eating OpenAI's lunch. So, this is AI model share of firsttime enterprise customers. And we've seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
Enthropic is eating OpenAI's lunch. So, this is AI model share of firsttime enterprise customers. And we've seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 54.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2025-05-17overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2025-09-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-02-13overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z54.3%+1.5pp
Network propagation: 52.9% → 54.3%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z52.9%+3.0pp
Network propagation: 49.9% → 52.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.9%+5.9pp
Network propagation: 43.9% → 49.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.9%+11.1pp
Network propagation: 32.9% → 43.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z32.9%-25.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.329 blend=0.329 LLR=-1.056 κ=0.87 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.19782244599601867,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.3420747495088293,
  "bayes_factor": "2.9:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5846944161985613,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-17",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.8615242878027869,
  "outside_weight": 0.1384757121972131,
  "posterior_prob": 0.32866198207086456,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7142429501345605,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.32866198207086456,
  "blended_posterior": 0.32866198207086456,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.0563176996433898,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.5%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 60.7% → 58.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.7%-4.3pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.047
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.650+0.017
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.650-0.013

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.054
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.044
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.022
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.012
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.010

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.718manifoldWill an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.576edgar_8kENTEGRIS INC (ENTG) (CIK 0001101302)mentionspending2026-05-08
0.576fdaFDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELIONmentionspending2026-05-23
0.576edgar_8kENTEGRIS INC (ENTG) (CIK 0001101302)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.572fdaFDA ANDA218148: ATROPINE SULFATE (ATROPINE SULFATE) — MANKIND PHARMAmentionspending2026-05-07
0.568polymarketCounter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner28%mentionspending2026-05-14
0.565polymarketLoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend54%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.562fdaFDA BLA761298: PAVBLU (AFLIBERCEPT-AYYH) — AMGEN INCmentionspending2026-04-28
0.555fdaFDA ANDA214957: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INCmentionspending2026-04-28
0.555fdaFDA ANDA212438: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ENCUBEmentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "40% to 73%",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Observation/thesis of trajectory",
  "context": "we've seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%. Over 3 months.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Enthropic is eating OpenAI's lunch. So, this is AI model share of firsttime enterprise customers. And we've seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%.",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "Past 3 months",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-05-17",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "240_056",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
  "episode_num": 240,
  "granularity": "RELATIVE_DURATION",
  "target_date": "2026-07-15",
  "display_date": "2026-06-30",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-21",
  "parse_method": "RELATIVE 3 months",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The C
... (truncated)