Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) | Enthropic is eating OpenAI's lunch. So, this is AI model share of firsttime enterprise customers. And we've seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%.
Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO
Verbatim quote
Enthropic is eating OpenAI's lunch. So, this is AI model share of firsttime enterprise customers. And we've seen Enthropic uh go from 40% up to 73% while OpenAI goes from 60% down to 26%.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-05-17overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2025-09-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-02-13overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.054 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.044 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.022 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.010 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (3)
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.718 | manifold | Will an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.576 | edgar_8k | ENTEGRIS INC (ENTG) (CIK 0001101302) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.576 | fda | FDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-23 |
| 0.576 | edgar_8k | ENTEGRIS INC (ENTG) (CIK 0001101302) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.572 | fda | FDA ANDA218148: ATROPINE SULFATE (ATROPINE SULFATE) — MANKIND PHARMA | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.568 | polymarket | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner | 28% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.565 | polymarket | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | 54% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.562 | fda | FDA BLA761298: PAVBLU (AFLIBERCEPT-AYYH) — AMGEN INC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.555 | fda | FDA ANDA214957: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ASCENT PHARMS INC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.555 | fda | FDA ANDA212438: CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE (CLINDAMYCIN PHOSPHATE) — ENCUBE | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
Raw metadata
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... (truncated)