Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable.

Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | the question the question I really No, you No, that was the question. You can answer it and then diverge... would I be user number approximately a million if it is upgradable? Yes, probably.

Watch events: Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI

the question the question I really No, you No, that was the question. You can answer it and then diverge... would I be user number approximately a million if it is upgradable? Yes, probably.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "user # ~1,000,000",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "If upgradeable and safe",
  "context": "would I be user number approximately a million if it is upgradable? Yes, probably.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the question the question I really No, you No, that was the question. You can answer it and then diverge... would I be user number approximately a million if it is upgradable? Yes, probably.",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "conditional future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_044",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
     
... (truncated)