Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.

Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | It may actually be uneconomically expensive to run in which case even if it has extraordinary capabilities maybe many people will choose not to run it.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO

It may actually be uneconomically expensive to run in which case even if it has extraordinary capabilities maybe many people will choose not to run it.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "5x more expensive than Opus",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Even if released",
  "context": "It may actually be uneconomically expensive to run in which case even if it has extraordinary capabilities maybe many people will choose not to run it. We just don't know yet.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "It may actually be uneconomically expensive to run in which case even if it has extraordinary capabilities maybe many people will choose not to run it.",
  "conv_cues": "may; maybe",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "246_048",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic publishes Mythos pricing per million tokens that is 4-6x Opus 4.7 ($5/$25)",
      "source": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic API pricing page (platform.claude.com/docs/about-claude/pricing) lists Mythos at input/output rates in the $20-$30 / $100-$150 per MTok range, i.e. ~5x Opus 4.7."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mythos availability gated to paid Anthropic Max/Enterprise tiers only",
      "source": "https://www.anthropic.com/claude/opus",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic announces Mythos available exclusively to enterprise/Max plan or via API allowlist; not surfaced in free Claude.ai or default consumer tier."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
   
... (truncated)