White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... I heard like June... There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer
Verbatim quote
it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... I heard like June... There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-08-31pendingTrump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social mediaHow: President Trump posts on Truth Social or X formally directing DoD/Hegseth/intel community to release UAP files, expanding February 2026 teaseSource: DefenseScoop — Transparency proponents meet Trump's UAP disclosure tease (February 20, 2026)conf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-31pendingHouse Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026How: Anna Paulina Luna's UAP Task Force convenes a public hearing with whistleblower testimony or DoD officials in target windowSource: Oversight.house.gov — Luna Opens Hearing on UAP Transparencyconf 75%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingPentagon UAP intercepts briefing delivered to lawmakers per FY2026 NDAAHow: DoD AARO delivers classified or unclassified briefing to congressional committees per FY2026 NDAA requirement covering UAP intercepts since 2004Source: DefenseScoop — Congress wants more on military UAP intercepts (FY 2026 NDAA, Dec 2025)conf 85%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingMainstream media frames specific White House UAP announcement as 'disclosure event'How: AP, Reuters, NYT, or WSJ publishes front-page coverage characterizing White House action as substantive UAP disclosure (not procedural)Source: Anticipated based on Trump Feb 2026 announcement and summer rumorsconf 40%Notes: Cascade — distinguishes a true disclosure event from procedural files release.
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUAP Disclosure Act / Transparency Act passes one chamber of CongressHow: H.R.1187 (UAP Transparency Act) or successor passes House or Senate vote in 119th CongressSource: Congress.gov — H.R.1187 UAP Transparency Act (119th Congress)conf 45%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.088 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.058 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | [Geopolitics 2026-07] [240_045] White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumo [229_004] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.724 | polymarket | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-20 |
| 0.720 | polymarket | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-20 |
| 0.710 | polymarket | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? | 35% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.709 | polymarket | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? | 100% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.704 | polymarket | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-17 |
| 0.701 | polymarket | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | 14% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-25 |
| 0.697 | polymarket | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | 7% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-20 |
| 0.668 | polymarket | Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? | 54% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-18 |
| 0.662 | manifold | (Another) White House Correspondents' Dinner takes place before June 1, 2026? | 52% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.643 | manifold | Xi JinPing visits USA before July 31? | 9% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Based on rumors",
"context": "sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months. >> That I heard I heard like June I'm not sure if that's >> there. There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer, sometime in the next few months.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... I heard like June... There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer",
"conv_cues": "sounds like; rumors",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "June/July/summer 2026",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Trump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social media",
"source": "DefenseScoop — Transparency proponents meet Trump's UAP disclosure tease (February 20, 2026)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
"source_url": "https://defensescoop.com/2026/02/20/trump-ufo-uap-government-files-disclosure/",
"expected_date": "2026-07-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-08-31",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "President Trump posts on Truth Social or X formally directing DoD/Hegseth/intel community to release UAP files, expanding February 2026 tease"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "House Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026",
"source": "Oversight.house.gov — Luna Opens Hearing on UAP Transparency",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.75,
"source_url": "https://oversight.house.gov/release/luna-opens-hearing-on-restoring-public-trust-through-uap-transparency/",
"expected_date": "2026-07-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-07-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Anna Paulina Luna's UAP Task Force convenes a public hearing with whistleblower testimony or DoD officials in target window"
... (truncated)