← Cockpit
240_045predictionGeopoliticsAI-timing

White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
39.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-07-01 – 2026-07-31
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... I heard like June... There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... I heard like June... There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-05-01 → 2026-08-31pendingTrump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social media
    How: President Trump posts on Truth Social or X formally directing DoD/Hegseth/intel community to release UAP files, expanding February 2026 tease
    Source: DefenseScoop — Transparency proponents meet Trump's UAP disclosure tease (February 20, 2026)conf 60%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-07-31pendingHouse Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026
    How: Anna Paulina Luna's UAP Task Force convenes a public hearing with whistleblower testimony or DoD officials in target window
    Source: Oversight.house.gov — Luna Opens Hearing on UAP Transparencyconf 75%
  3. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingPentagon UAP intercepts briefing delivered to lawmakers per FY2026 NDAA
    How: DoD AARO delivers classified or unclassified briefing to congressional committees per FY2026 NDAA requirement covering UAP intercepts since 2004
    Source: DefenseScoop — Congress wants more on military UAP intercepts (FY 2026 NDAA, Dec 2025)conf 85%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingMainstream media frames specific White House UAP announcement as 'disclosure event'
    How: AP, Reuters, NYT, or WSJ publishes front-page coverage characterizing White House action as substantive UAP disclosure (not procedural)
    Source: Anticipated based on Trump Feb 2026 announcement and summer rumorsconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — distinguishes a true disclosure event from procedural files release.
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUAP Disclosure Act / Transparency Act passes one chamber of Congress
    How: H.R.1187 (UAP Transparency Act) or successor passes House or Senate vote in 119th Congress
    Source: Congress.gov — H.R.1187 UAP Transparency Act (119th Congress)conf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 40.4% → 39.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4500.050-0.074
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.049
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.043
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.4500.050-0.036
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.4500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.088
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.081
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.077
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.074
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.058

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-07-31[Geopolitics 2026-07] [240_045] White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumo [229_004] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment countpending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.724polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?0%mentionspending2026-04-20
0.720polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?1%mentionspending2026-04-20
0.710polymarketTrump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?35%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.709polymarketTrump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?100%mentionspending2026-05-08
0.704polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?0%mentionspending2026-04-17
0.701polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?14%mentionspending2025-11-25
0.697polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?7%mentionspending2026-04-20
0.668polymarketAliens.gov confirmed immigration website?54%mentionspending2026-03-18
0.662manifold(Another) White House Correspondents' Dinner takes place before June 1, 2026?52%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.643manifoldXi JinPing visits USA before July 31?9%mentionspending2026-05-13

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Based on rumors",
  "context": "sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months. >> That I heard I heard like June I'm not sure if that's >> there. There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer, sometime in the next few months.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months... I heard like June... There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer",
  "conv_cues": "sounds like; rumors",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "June/July/summer 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump publishes additional UAP/UFO disclosure directive on social media",
      "source": "DefenseScoop — Transparency proponents meet Trump's UAP disclosure tease (February 20, 2026)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://defensescoop.com/2026/02/20/trump-ufo-uap-government-files-disclosure/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-08-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "President Trump posts on Truth Social or X formally directing DoD/Hegseth/intel community to release UAP files, expanding February 2026 tease"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "House Oversight UAP Task Force holds public hearing in June/July 2026",
      "source": "Oversight.house.gov — Luna Opens Hearing on UAP Transparency",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://oversight.house.gov/release/luna-opens-hearing-on-restoring-public-trust-through-uap-transparency/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-07-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anna Paulina Luna's UAP Task Force convenes a public hearing with whistleblower testimony or DoD officials in target window"
  
... (truncated)