241_060predictionSpaceAI-timing

Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability

65.0%

Current probability

53.6%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

10 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | my childhood dreams of going to the moon and Mars and would be fueled by data centers

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"

my childhood dreams of going to the moon and Mars and would be fueled by data centers

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.875

Brier

0.0367

excellent

Hits / Misses

10 / 0

of 15 resolved

Hit rate

66.7%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: mars_uncrewed_landing_window

Linked via embedding similarity 0.553

All classes →

Successful uncrewed payload delivery to Mars surface within named transfer window

Base rate

50.0%

9/18 historical

Inside weight

—

Outside weight

—

no pull

inside 53.6% → blend 53.6% (Δ 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 53.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 10 fired ✓

2025-11-02hitStarcloud places first NVIDIA H100 GPU in space
How: Starcloud confirms NVIDIA H100 GPU operational in space aboard Starcloud-1 satellite
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/nvidia-backed-starcloud-trains-first-ai-model-in-space-orbital-data-centers.htmlconf 99%
2025-12-10hitFirst in-orbit LLM training completed
How: Starcloud trains a large language model (NanoGPT) in space using GPU compute on satellite
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/nvidia-backed-starcloud-trains-first-ai-model-in-space-orbital-data-centers.htmlconf 99%
2026-02-03hitStarcloud files FCC for 88,000-satellite orbital constellation
How: Starcloud submits FCC proposal for >=10,000 satellite orbital data center constellation
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starcloudconf 95%
2026-02-28hitMultiple orbital data center operators run production workloads simultaneously
How: >=2 commercial orbital data center operators (Starcloud, Lonestar, others) run paying-customer workloads in parallel
Source: https://introl.com/blog/orbital-data-centers-space-computing-race-2026conf 85%
2026-03-30hitStarcloud raises $170M Series A to build orbital data centers
How: Starcloud closes Series A funding >=$150M for orbital data center build-out
Source: https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/starcloud-raises-170-million-series-ato-build-data-centers-in-space/conf 99%
Notes: HIT — $170M raised at $1.1B valuation March 30 2026, validating space data center thesis.
2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-29hitTraining runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.
2026-04-29hitAnthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
2026-04-29hit2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.
2026-04-29hitRecursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
2026-06-22pendingData centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers
2027-06-26pendingMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2028-09-07pendingBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.
2033-07-30pendingRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.
2033-08-10pendingASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z53.6%-1.0pp

Network propagation: 54.6% → 53.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z54.6%-10.4pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.546 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.650	-0.096
prereq	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis	67.1%	0.650	0.050	-0.087
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.650	+0.054
prereq	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil	73.8%	0.650	0.050	-0.049
killer	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	12.0%	0.050	0.650	+0.042

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	+0.040
prereq	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil	39.2%	0.750	0.050	+0.029
prereq	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis	35.9%	0.650	0.050	+0.009
prereq	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross	35.4%	0.620	0.050	-0.002
prereq	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman	31.4%	0.550	0.050	+0.001

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	238_009	Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)	AI	—
prereq	SEM_008	Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.	AI	—
prereq	234_012	Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	SEM_042	2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.	AI/Agents	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK15	SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	235_030	Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	241_043	ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade	AI	—
prereq	231_013	Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.	AI	—
prereq	CMQ_002	By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.	AI	—

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-06-30	[Space 2026-06] far on energy argument for data centers [241_060] Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers	pending

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.697	manifold	Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?	35%	mentions	pending	2026-06-06
0.605	gdelt	used spacex rocket could crash into the moons einstein crater this summer report predicts	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "my childhood dreams of going to the moon and Mars and would be fueled by data centers",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "my childhood dreams of going to the moon and Mars and would be fueled by data centers",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starcloud places first NVIDIA H100 GPU in space",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/nvidia-backed-starcloud-trains-first-ai-model-in-space-orbital-data-centers.html",
      "status": "hit",
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      "expected_date": "2025-11-02",
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      "research_origin": "deep_research",
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First in-orbit LLM training completed",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/nvidia-backed-starcloud-trains-first-ai-model-in-space-orbital-data-centers.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/nvidia-backed-starcloud-trains-first-ai-model-in-space-orbital-data-centers.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-10",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starcloud files FCC for 88,000-satellite orbital constellation",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starcloud",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starcloud",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-03",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-03",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Starcloud submits FCC proposal for >=10,000 satellite orbital data center constellation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Multiple orbital data center operators run production workloads simultaneously",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/orbital-data-centers-space-computing-race-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/orbital-data-centers-space-computing-race-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": ">=2 commercial orbital data center operators (Starcloud, Lonestar, others) run paying-customer workloads in parallel"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Starcloud raises $170M Series A to build orbital data centers",
      "notes": "HIT — $170M raised at $1.1B valuation March 30 2026, validating space data center thesis.",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/starcloud-raises-170-million-series-ato-build-data-centers-in-space/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/30/starcloud-raises-170-million-series-ato-build-data-centers-in-space/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Starcloud closes Series A funding >=$150M for orbit
... (truncated)