Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months

Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 for has been a reduction in cost of about a,000x.

To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 for has been a reduction in cost of about a,000x.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1000x",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "our first reasoning model was called 01 came out like 16 months ago. Uh and our latest model where we now integrated reasoning is 5.4. To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 for has been a reduction in cost of about a,000x.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 for has been a reduction in cost of about a,000x.",
  "conv_cues": "has been",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2024,
  "timeframe": "Past 16 months / ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2024-08-24",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-04-18",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-12-11",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-4-class inference cost drops to $0.40/M tokens (1000x reduction)",
      "source": "https://www.gpunex.com/blog/ai-inference-economics-2026/ — 1000x cost collapse",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.gpunex.com/blog/ai-inference-economics-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry pricing data confirms GPT-4-class equivalent performance available at <=$0.40/M tokens, vs $20/M in late 2022 (>=1000x drop)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek R1 runs 20-50x cheaper than OpenAI equivalent",
      "source": "https://www.gpunex.com/blog/ai-inference-economics-2026/ — 20-50x cheaper",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.gpunex.com/blog/ai-inference-economics-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Sam Altman or OpenAI executive publicly acknowledges DeepSeek R1 runs at 20-50x cheaper inference cost than OpenAI equivalent reasoning model"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "$18B allocated to foundation model APIs in 2025 (paradox confirmation)",
      "source": "https://www.arturmarkus.com/the-inference-cost-paradox-why-generative-ai-spending-surged-320-in-2025-despite-per-token-costs-dropping-1-000x-and-what-it-means-for-your-ai-budget-in-2026/ — Inference paradox",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.arturmarkus.com/the-inference-cost-paradox-why-generative-ai-spending-surged-320-in-2025-despite-per-token-costs-dropping-1-000x-and-what-it-means-for-your-ai-budget-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observ
... (truncated)