US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.
Verbatim quote
US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.062 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.032 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.021 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.008 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED | 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | [Energy/Regulation 2026-12] er gas turbine deployments at AI campus [235_022] US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | pending |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "86 GW",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.",
"conv_cues": "plans to",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
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"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
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"expected_date": "2026-07-26",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "231_013",
"expected_date": "2027-06-26",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "232_055",
"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "CMQ_002",
"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 235,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-07-26",
"episode_date": "2026-03-05",
"parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "Energy",
"episode_title": "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002,
... (truncated)