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235_022predictionEnergyAI-timing

US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
52.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.680

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 52.8% → blend 52.8% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 52.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 53%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z52.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 54.3% → 52.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z54.3%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 56.8% → 54.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z56.8%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 58.1% → 56.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z58.1%+0.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.581 w_in=0.53 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z58.1%-6.9pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.581 w_in=0.53 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.062
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.041
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.032
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.650+0.032
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.022

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.033
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.021
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.008
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.004
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.003

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_GRID_50GW_DELAYED50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031energy_grid_expansion
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Energy/Regulation 2026-12] er gas turbine deployments at AI campus [235_022] US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.634manifoldWill WA SWIS 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$150/MWh?28%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.629manifoldWill Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?52%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.623manifoldWill WA SWIS 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$135/MWh?25%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.615manifoldUS Gas Price average for 11 May 2026?mentionspending2026-05-10
0.614manifoldWill US average gas price reach $4.690 in May 2026?46%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.610manifoldWill US average gas price reach $4.300 in May 2026?99%mentionspending2026-04-27
0.600manifoldWill Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?32%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.589manifoldWill OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?39%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.586manifoldWill Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?35%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.553manifoldWhat will be the rating of the Enid Oklahoma Tornado (2026)mentionspending2026-04-24

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "86 GW",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "US plans to add a record 86 gawatt of utility scale capacity this coming year.",
  "conv_cues": "plans to",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "235_022",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 235,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-07-26",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-05",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Energy",
  "episode_title": "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, 
... (truncated)