By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free

By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | I would be disappointed if by the time we get to September, if we don't have a thousand videos of ultra high inspirational quality generated for nearly free at this point.

I would be disappointed if by the time we get to September, if we don't have a thousand videos of ultra high inspirational quality generated for nearly free at this point.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1,000 videos",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "postcarce inspirational videos are already baked in. I would be disappointed if by the time we get to September, if we don't have a thousand videos of ultra high inspirational quality generated for nearly free at this point.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I would be disappointed if by the time we get to September, if we don't have a thousand videos of ultra high inspirational quality generated for nearly free at this point.",
  "conv_cues": "I would be disappointed if we don't",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "September 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Veo 3.1 ships with 4K resolution + native audio at $0.20-0.50/s",
      "source": "https://blog.laozhang.ai/en/posts/best-ai-video-model",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://blog.laozhang.ai/en/posts/best-ai-video-model",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Google's Veo 3.1 publicly available with 4K + audio synchronization at API tier $0.20/s (1080p) to $0.50/s (4K)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI Sora 2 generates >=10s coherent video at consumer-grade quality with $20/mo plan",
      "notes": "Sora 2 launched, then Sora app shut down 2026-04-26 — but underlying capability available via API at $0.10-$0.30/s.",
      "source": "https://openai.com/index/sora-2/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://openai.com/index/sora-2/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-26",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-26",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Sora 2 publicly available; ChatGPT Plus subscription at $20/mo enables ~12 ten-second 720p videos/mo per credit allowance"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": 
... (truncated)