← Cockpit
248_008predictionAIAI-timing

Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year.

Predictor: Jack Dorsey · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | I would say our max depth right now is probably five folks between me and anyone in the company. I would want to get that down to two to three this year and in the most ideal case there is no layer. everyone in the company reports to me and that would be all 6,000 of the company.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
I would say our max depth right now is probably five folks between me and anyone in the company. I would want to get that down to two to three this year and in the most ideal case there is no layer. everyone in the company reports to me and that would be all 6,000 of the company.

Predictor: Jack Dorsey

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.722
Brier
0.0109
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 4 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jack Dorsey is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.8% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.053
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.046
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.033
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.041
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.033
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.032
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.019
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.005

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "depth reduction from 5 to 2-3",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "our max depth right now is probably five folks between me and anyone in the company. I would want to get that down to two to three this year",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "I would say our max depth right now is probably five folks between me and anyone in the company. I would want to get that down to two to three this year and in the most ideal case there is no layer. everyone in the company reports to me and that would be all 6,000 of the company.",
  "conv_cues": "I would want to",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "this year (2026)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Block",
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION"
... (truncated)