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241_017predictionEnergyAI-timing

Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
9 / 5
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | a nuclear power plant is about 1.5 gigawatts. So it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one, right? Depending on how you count

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
a nuclear power plant is about 1.5 gigawatts. So it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one, right? Depending on how you count

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.602

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 50.1% → blend 50.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.1%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.3% → 50.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.3%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 53.3% → 51.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.3%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 55.4% → 53.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z55.4%+1.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.554 w_in=0.53 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z53.8%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 55.3% → 53.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z55.3%-4.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.553 w_in=0.53 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.050
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.044
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.042
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6000.050-0.032
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.6000.050-0.026

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.023
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.017
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.016
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.012
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.003

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
correlateS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030compute_scale
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "60 nuclear plants needed; zero or one being built",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "a nuclear power plant is about 1.5 gigawatts. So it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one, right? Depending on how you count",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_017",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "231_013",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "former Google CEO",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 241,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-08-11",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-24",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Energy",
  "episode_title": "Eric Schmidt on the R
... (truncated)