Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | a nuclear power plant is about 1.5 gigawatts. So it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one, right? Depending on how you count
Verbatim quote
a nuclear power plant is about 1.5 gigawatts. So it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one, right? Depending on how you count
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.044 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.026 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.017 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.016 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.012 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (9)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 | Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030 | compute_scale | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "60 nuclear plants needed; zero or one being built",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "a nuclear power plant is about 1.5 gigawatts. So it's about 60 nuclear plants and we're doing essentially zero or one, right? Depending on how you count",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2030",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
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"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "241_017",
"expected_date": "2026-08-11",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
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"expected_date": "2027-06-26",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "232_055",
"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "CMQ_002",
"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-10",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "former Google CEO",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 241,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-08-11",
"episode_date": "2026-03-24",
"parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "Energy",
"episode_title": "Eric Schmidt on the R
... (truncated)