AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source
Prediction text
AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | You know, is this entertaining? Is this funny? Is this image clear? Does it have six fingers? You know, all that stuff is really really good for this service. I I think that's going to be gone in in months if it's not gone already.
Verbatim quote
You know, is this entertaining? Is this funny? Is this image clear? Does it have six fingers? You know, all that stuff is really really good for this service. I I think that's going to be gone in in months if it's not gone already.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-07hitRentAHuman service launches February 2026 — humans rented by AIHow: RentAHuman.ai goes live with >=100K signups within 30 days; AI agents hire humans for tasks AI cannot do (validates that scoring/visuals tasks are flipping in direction)Source: https://www.gizmochina.com/2026/02/07/humans-for-hire-this-website-lets-ai-rent-humans-for-work/ — Gizmochina launch coverageconf 95%
- 2026-04-29overdueOSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10ppHow: Top OSWorld-Verified model achieves >=82% (vs 72.4% human baseline) — proves AI can score visual/UI tasks at superhuman level, eroding human-grading needSource: https://benchlm.ai/benchmarks/osWorldVerified — Holo3 leaderboardconf 85%
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingMultimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass rateHow: Frontier multimodal model achieves human-grader-parity (>=95% agreement) on visual creativity / humor scoring benchmarksSource: Stanford AI Index 2026 multimodal capability extrapolationconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMajor rent-a-human platform deprecates humor/visual scoring tasksHow: RentAHuman.ai or competitor publicly removes 'humor scoring' or 'visual creativity scoring' SKU from task catalog due to AI substitutionSource: Pattern extrapolation from rapid multimodal capability gainsconf 50%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingCascade: Human-as-graders gig economy contracts >30% YoYHow: RLHF/human-grader gig labor demand (Scale AI, Surge, etc.) declines >=30% YoY measured via posted task volumeSource: Scale AI / Surge AI public hiring patternsconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.6188417233545699,
"kappa": 0.8438,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.2626418454937682,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.43471439531203065,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.7172299999999999,
"label": "OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pp",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://benchlm.ai/benchmarks/osWorldVerified",
"adjusted_llr": -0.2908117394884187,
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"measurement_criterion": "Top OSWorld-Verified model achieves >=82% (vs 72.4% human baseline) — proves AI can score visual/UI tasks at superhuman level, eroding human-grading need"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.566810793651801,
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"posterior_prob": 0.36506352268234904,
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"predictor_brier": 0.03413,
"inside_posterior": 0.36506352268234904,
"blended_posterior": 0.36506352268234904,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.2908117394884187,
"predictor_n_resolved": 11
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.053 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.030 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.060 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.590 | manifold | Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June? | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.581 | manifold | How many views will all plzdontkillus content receive in July? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.573 | polymarket | Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | 8% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.572 | manifold | What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Nineteen' take? (Read Description) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.561 | polymarket | Will the White House Press Secretary say "CDC" or "WHO" during the next White House Press Briefing? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.557 | manifold | Confess... something you do to hype yourself up when you need it. (Bilt Rent Free Jun 1, 2026) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.555 | manifold | The Boys Finale IMDB score ≤ 7.0 at end of May? | 30% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-09 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "months",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "You know, is this entertaining? Is this funny? Is this image clear? Does it have six fingers? You know, all that stuff is really really good for this service. I I think that's going to be gone in in months if it's not gone already.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "You know, is this entertaining? Is this funny? Is this image clear? Does it have six fingers? You know, all that stuff is really really good for this service. I I think that's going to be gone in in months if it's not gone already.",
"conv_cues": "going to be gone",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Within months",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "RentAHuman service launches February 2026 — humans rented by AI",
"source": "https://www.gizmochina.com/2026/02/07/humans-for-hire-this-website-lets-ai-rent-humans-for-work/ — Gizmochina launch coverage",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.gizmochina.com/2026/02/07/humans-for-hire-this-website-lets-ai-rent-humans-for-work/",
"expected_date": "2026-02-07",
"observed_date": "2026-02-07",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "RentAHuman.ai goes live with >=100K signups within 30 days; AI agents hire humans for tasks AI cannot do (validates that scoring/visuals tasks are flipping in direction)"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OSWorld leader exceeds human baseline by 10pp",
"source": "https://benchlm.ai/benchmarks/osWorldVerified — Holo3 leaderboard",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://benchlm.ai/benchmarks/osWorldVerified",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-07T22:13:01.009021+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Top OSWorld-Verified model achieves >=82% (vs 72.4% human baseline) — proves AI can score visual/UI tasks at superhuman level, eroding human-grading need"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Multimodal vision/humor capability matches human-grader pass rate",
"source": "Stanford AI Index 2026 multimodal capability extrapolation",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"
... (truncated)