Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | I I I think it it's it's likely to look something analogous where where we see maybe consolidation at a global scale around fewer religions while at micro levels enabling a proliferation of micro cults, micro sects
Verbatim quote
I I I think it it's it's likely to look something analogous where where we see maybe consolidation at a global scale around fewer religions while at micro levels enabling a proliferation of micro cults, micro sects
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingPew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation updateHow: Pew Research Center or Gallup releases new global religion data showing trend in concentration among top-3 religions vs. micro-affiliations.Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenonHow: At least three major outlets (NYT/WaPo/Atlantic/Wired/Guardian) publish features documenting AI-platform-mediated micro-religious or quasi-religious communities.Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingQuantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communitiesHow: Peer-reviewed sociology or HCI paper provides estimates of populations participating in AI-mediated belief communities; supports the 'micro-sect proliferation' half of the prediction.Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingTop-3 world religions' combined share trend visible in WCD/ARDA datasetHow: World Christian Database / Association of Religion Data Archives shows >=1pp shift in combined adherent share for the top-3 religions (concentration up or down) over the 2020-27 window.Source: llm_enrichedconf 35%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.088 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.058 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | [Governance 2026-06] xplosion of new religions and AI cults. [248_025] Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferat [248_027] Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | pending |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.606 | manifold | Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years? | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-25 |
| 0.589 | manifold | Will a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040? | 60% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
Raw metadata
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"
... (truncated)