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248_025predictionOtherAI-timing

Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
39.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | I I I think it it's it's likely to look something analogous where where we see maybe consolidation at a global scale around fewer religions while at micro levels enabling a proliferation of micro cults, micro sects

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
I I I think it it's it's likely to look something analogous where where we see maybe consolidation at a global scale around fewer religions while at micro levels enabling a proliferation of micro cults, micro sects

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingPew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation update
    How: Pew Research Center or Gallup releases new global religion data showing trend in concentration among top-3 religions vs. micro-affiliations.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenon
    How: At least three major outlets (NYT/WaPo/Atlantic/Wired/Guardian) publish features documenting AI-platform-mediated micro-religious or quasi-religious communities.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingQuantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communities
    How: Peer-reviewed sociology or HCI paper provides estimates of populations participating in AI-mediated belief communities; supports the 'micro-sect proliferation' half of the prediction.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingTop-3 world religions' combined share trend visible in WCD/ARDA dataset
    How: World Christian Database / Association of Religion Data Archives shows >=1pp shift in combined adherent share for the top-3 religions (concentration up or down) over the 2020-27 window.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 35%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.0%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 40.4% → 39.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4500.050-0.074
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.049
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.043
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.4500.050-0.036
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.4500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.088
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.081
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.077
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.074
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.058

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-06-30[Governance 2026-06] xplosion of new religions and AI cults. [248_025] Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferat [248_027] Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.pending

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.606manifoldWill Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?24%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.589manifoldWill a Muslim Majority Country Lose Its Majority Before 2040?60%mentionspending2026-05-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "consolidation at a global scale around fewer religions while at micro levels enabling a proliferation of micro cults, micro sects",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I I I think it it's it's likely to look something analogous where where we see maybe consolidation at a global scale around fewer religions while at micro levels enabling a proliferation of micro cults, micro sects",
  "conv_cues": "likely",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Pew or Gallup publishes 2026 global religion-affiliation update",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Pew Research Center or Gallup releases new global religion data showing trend in concentration among top-3 religions vs. micro-affiliations."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mainstream press identifies AI-generated 'micro-cult/sect' phenomenon",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least three major outlets (NYT/WaPo/Atlantic/Wired/Guardian) publish features documenting AI-platform-mediated micro-religious or quasi-religious communities."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Quantitative measurement of 'AI-religion' / parasocial belief communities",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "
... (truncated)