Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the um of of the non-Chinese systems in terms of its depth. And because it's multilingual, multimodal
Verbatim quote
Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the um of of the non-Chinese systems in terms of its depth. And because it's multilingual, multimodal
Resolution evidence
Gemini 3 breadth among non-Chinese models — widely held view April 2026.
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-11-18hitGemini 3 Pro launches November 18, 2025 with confirmed multimodal/multilingual capabilityHow: Google announces Gemini 3 Pro with text/video/file multimodal understanding, leading multilingual performance, 1M-token contextSource: Google Blog / DeepMind — Gemini 3 launch (Nov 18, 2025)conf 99%Notes: HIT — Gemini 3 already shipped with confirmed multimodal/multilingual capability.
- 2026-04-23hitGPT-5.5 ships ahead of Gemini 3 on Terminal-Bench / FrontierMathHow: OpenAI publishes GPT-5.5 benchmark wins on Terminal-Bench 2.0 (82.7%) vs Claude Opus 4.7 (69.4%) and FrontierMath (51.7% vs 43.8%)Source: Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 Review April 2026conf 99%Notes: HIT — competitor data point. GPT-5.5 leads on coding/math but Gemini 3 retains breadth via multimodal/multilingual.
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-08-31pendingGemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmedHow: Google publishes Gemini 3 Deep Think public availability with extended reasoning capability covering multimodal inputsSource: Google Blog / DeepMind — Gemini 3 Deep Think announced Nov 18, 2025conf 85%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-08-31pendingGemini 3 leads on multilingual benchmark vs GPT-5.5 / Claude in independent evaluationHow: Independent benchmark (MGSM, FLORES, XTREME) shows Gemini 3 leading on multilingual tasks vs GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7Source: Anticipated — based on Gemini 3 multilingual focus per launch announcementconf 55%Notes: Direct test of 'broadest of non-Chinese systems' framing.
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-08-31pendingChinese frontier model (DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi) released matching Gemini 3 breadthHow: Chinese-origin frontier model demonstrates equivalent multimodal + multilingual + reasoning breadth to Gemini 3 in third-party evaluationSource: Anticipated — pace of Chinese releases tracking US frontierconf 65%Notes: Cascade — would directly test the 'non-Chinese' qualifier in Schmidt's prediction.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.053 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.033 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.019 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.005 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.659 | polymarket | Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? | 83% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.621 | arxiv | Implicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendations | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
Raw metadata
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"context": "Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the... non-Chinese systems",
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"label": "Gemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmed",
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"expected_date": "2026-06-16",
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... (truncated)