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241_046predictionAIAI-timing

Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the um of of the non-Chinese systems in terms of its depth. And because it's multilingual, multimodal

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the um of of the non-Chinese systems in terms of its depth. And because it's multilingual, multimodal

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Gemini 3 breadth among non-Chinese models — widely held view April 2026.

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2025-11-18hitGemini 3 Pro launches November 18, 2025 with confirmed multimodal/multilingual capability
    How: Google announces Gemini 3 Pro with text/video/file multimodal understanding, leading multilingual performance, 1M-token context
    Source: Google Blog / DeepMind — Gemini 3 launch (Nov 18, 2025)conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Gemini 3 already shipped with confirmed multimodal/multilingual capability.
  2. 2026-04-23hitGPT-5.5 ships ahead of Gemini 3 on Terminal-Bench / FrontierMath
    How: OpenAI publishes GPT-5.5 benchmark wins on Terminal-Bench 2.0 (82.7%) vs Claude Opus 4.7 (69.4%) and FrontierMath (51.7% vs 43.8%)
    Source: Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 Review April 2026conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — competitor data point. GPT-5.5 leads on coding/math but Gemini 3 retains breadth via multimodal/multilingual.
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2026-08-31pendingGemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmed
    How: Google publishes Gemini 3 Deep Think public availability with extended reasoning capability covering multimodal inputs
    Source: Google Blog / DeepMind — Gemini 3 Deep Think announced Nov 18, 2025conf 85%
  4. 2026-05-01 → 2026-08-31pendingGemini 3 leads on multilingual benchmark vs GPT-5.5 / Claude in independent evaluation
    How: Independent benchmark (MGSM, FLORES, XTREME) shows Gemini 3 leading on multilingual tasks vs GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7
    Source: Anticipated — based on Gemini 3 multilingual focus per launch announcementconf 55%
    Notes: Direct test of 'broadest of non-Chinese systems' framing.
  5. 2026-05-01 → 2026-08-31pendingChinese frontier model (DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi) released matching Gemini 3 breadth
    How: Chinese-origin frontier model demonstrates equivalent multimodal + multilingual + reasoning breadth to Gemini 3 in third-party evaluation
    Source: Anticipated — pace of Chinese releases tracking US frontierconf 65%
    Notes: Cascade — would directly test the 'non-Chinese' qualifier in Schmidt's prediction.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z46.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.8% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.8%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 49.3% → 47.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.3%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.053
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.046
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5500.050-0.037
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.033
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050-0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.041
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.033
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.032
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.019
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.005

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.659polymarketWill Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?83%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.621arxivImplicit Geographic Inference in LLM Medical Triage: Language-Driven Disparities in Emergency Recommendationsmentionspending2026-05-31

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the... non-Chinese systems",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the um of of the non-Chinese systems in terms of its depth. And because it's multilingual, multimodal",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "present",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Gemini 3 Pro launches November 18, 2025 with confirmed multimodal/multilingual capability",
      "notes": "HIT — Gemini 3 already shipped with confirmed multimodal/multilingual capability.",
      "source": "Google Blog / DeepMind — Gemini 3 launch (Nov 18, 2025)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/gemini/gemini-3/",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-18",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-18",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google announces Gemini 3 Pro with text/video/file multimodal understanding, leading multilingual performance, 1M-token context"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 ships ahead of Gemini 3 on Terminal-Bench / FrontierMath",
      "notes": "HIT — competitor data point. GPT-5.5 leads on coding/math but Gemini 3 retains breadth via multimodal/multilingual.",
      "source": "Build Fast With AI — GPT-5.5 Review April 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/gpt-5-5-review-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publishes GPT-5.5 benchmark wins on Terminal-Bench 2.0 (82.7%) vs Claude Opus 4.7 (69.4%) and FrontierMath (51.7% vs 43.8%)"
    },
    {
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      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Gemini 3 Deep Think variant published with reasoning-mode breadth confirmed",
      "source": "Google Blog / DeepMind — Gemini 3 Deep Think announced Nov 18, 2025",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/gemini/gemini-3/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-08-31",
        "from": "202
... (truncated)