Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.

Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | Poly Markets does 20% chance or loss on Q2 on Gro 5 now.

Watch events: Grok 5 launch (Q2 2026 consensus)

Poly Markets does 20% chance or loss on Q2 on Gro 5 now.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "20% probability",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "where the hell is Grock 5? You know, it's supposed to be out Q1 and now it's >> Poly Markets does 20% chance or loss on Q2 on Gro 5 now.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
  "verbatim": "Poly Markets does 20% chance or loss on Q2 on Gro 5 now.",
  "conv_cues": "20% chance",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Q2 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "246_023",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Polymarket 'Grok 5 by Q2 2026' market resolves",
      "source": "https://polymarket.com/event/grok-5-released-by",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-07-05",
        "from": "2026-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Polymarket Grok-5-released-by-June-30 market officially resolves YES or NO; current pricing ~12% as of late April 2026 (down from 68% open and well below the 20% reading the predictor cited)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Grok 5 model card, weights, or API access publicly available",
      "source": "https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/tech/grok-5-released-by",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-08",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-04-15"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI publishes Grok 5 model card on x.ai/blog, makes available via X Premium / xAI API / open weights; confirmed by xAI announcement and tested by independent press"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI provides updated guidance on Grok 5 launch window",
      "source": "https://felloai.com/all-we-know-so-far-about-grok-5/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "me
... (truncated)