By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.

By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Um I think in like the next like I think by summer we'll have almost none of our uh supply chain in China anymore.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Um I think in like the next like I think by summer we'll have almost none of our uh supply chain in China anymore.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "almost 0%",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "supply chain how much supply chain ties back to China. Um I think in like the next like I think by summer we'll have almost none of our uh supply chain in China anymore.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Um I think in like the next like I think by summer we'll have almost none of our uh supply chain in China anymore.",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by summer (2026)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure announces alternate harmonic-reducer supplier outside China",
      "notes": "Harmonic reducers are the highest-stakes Chinese-supply-chain dependency in humanoid robotics. A reshoring announcement is direct evidence.",
      "source": "ChinaPower CSIS / Discovery Alert — Suzhou Leaderdrive currently dominates harmonic reducers; reshoring named as bottleneck",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://chinapower.csis.org/china-industrial-robots/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-07-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI publicly names a non-China harmonic-reducer / strain-wave gear supplier (e.g., Harmonic Drive Japan, Nidec, US-domestic) for Figure 03 production"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure publishes US-only manufacturing announcement / supply-chain reshoring milestone",
      "notes": "Anchor milestone — direct verification of the prediction in target window.",
      "source": "Brett Adcock public statement on Moonshots podcast — April 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-08-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI (Brett Adcock) publicly states on X, blog, or press release that the bulk of supply chain has been moved out of China by summer 2026, with named US/non-China 
... (truncated)