Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play

Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | We're going to see post transformer architectures that make a thousandx reduction in cost look like child's play.

We're going to see post transformer architectures that make a thousandx reduction in cost look like child's play.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": ">1000x",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "We're going to see post transformer architectures that make a thousandx reduction in cost look like child's play.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "We're going to see post transformer architectures that make a thousandx reduction in cost look like child's play.",
  "conv_cues": "going to see",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Future (near-term)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IBM Granite 4.0 hybrid Mamba-2 ships to enterprise with >70% RAM reduction",
      "notes": "HIT — Granite 4 with hybrid arch released Nov 2025.",
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      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IBM publicly releases Granite 4.0 hybrid Mamba/Transformer with documented >70% RAM reduction for long-context"
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 1T-param model claims 10-40x cost reduction vs Western peers",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026",
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      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DeepSeek V4 release with documented benchmarks showing >10x cost-per-token reduction vs comparable Western frontier model"
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
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      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
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      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
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      "label": "Mamba-3 published at ICLR 2026 with sub-Transformer latency at 1.5B scale",
      "notes": "HIT — Mamba-3 SISO beats Mamba-2/Llama-3.2 on prefill+decode latency.",
      "source": "https://openreview.net/pdf?id=HwCvaJOiCj",
      "status": "hit",
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      "confiden
... (truncated)