Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | I already mentioned the teenage sorry, the underage kids problem. That's a line we can't cross. We got to solve that problem
Verbatim quote
I already mentioned the teenage sorry, the underage kids problem. That's a line we can't cross. We got to solve that problem
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-01hitCalifornia SB 243 (chatbot safeguards) takes effectHow: California SB 243 becomes operative law, requiring chatbot operators to limit youth access and add safeguardsSource: CBS8: 2026 New California Laws — Chatbot safety for childrenconf 99%Notes: HIT — first-in-nation AI chatbot child-safety law signed Oct 2025, effective Jan 1 2026.
- 2026-04-15hitIdaho/Oregon/Washington enact youth chatbot safeguardsHow: Three additional US states (beyond California) enact laws restricting AI chatbot interactions with minorsSource: MultiState: State Children's Online Safety Laws Expand to AI Chatbots in 2026conf 95%
- 2026-04-15hitMarkey Youth AI Privacy Act introduced in SenateHow: Senator Markey introduces or advances Youth AI Privacy Act requiring privacy safeguards in AI chatbots for minorsSource: Markey Senate press release on Youth AI Privacy Actconf 90%
- 2026-04-30hitFederal GUARD Act advances out of Senate Judiciary CommitteeHow: Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously advances S.3062 (GUARD Act) banning AI companion chatbots for minorsSource: HNGN: Senate Panel Unanimously Advances Bill to Ban AI Companion Chatbots for Children; Congress.gov S.3062conf 95%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMajor frontier lab implements verified-age gating with audit trailHow: OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google publicly deploys age verification + minor-content safeguards across consumer AI chat productsSource: Anthropic / OpenAI safety updates and policy docsconf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: federal AI chatbot child-safety law signed into lawHow: GUARD Act or successor federal legislation signed into law, establishing national chatbot-minor protectionsSource: Congress.gov S.3062 progress; White House signing ceremoniesconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.091 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.039 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.020 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.015 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.621 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v5.6.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.618 | github_release | facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post1 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-12-31 |
| 0.578 | github_release | facebookresearch/hydra v1.2.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-05-17 |
| 0.572 | github_release | facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2020-09-15 |
| 0.571 | github_release | facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.6 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-02-01 |
| 0.571 | manifold | Best Out-of-Context Quote at LessOnline 2026 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "That's a line we can't cross. We got to solve that problem",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I already mentioned the teenage sorry, the underage kids problem. That's a line we can't cross. We got to solve that problem",
"conv_cues": "needs to be addressed right now",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "California SB 243 (chatbot safeguards) takes effect",
"notes": "HIT — first-in-nation AI chatbot child-safety law signed Oct 2025, effective Jan 1 2026.",
"source": "CBS8: 2026 New California Laws — Chatbot safety for children",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local/california/2026-new-california-laws-chatbot-safety-children/509-1eed366f-6e11-4ba2-8dc5-70f8fd3ae479",
"expected_date": "2026-01-01",
"observed_date": "2026-01-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "California SB 243 becomes operative law, requiring chatbot operators to limit youth access and add safeguards"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Idaho/Oregon/Washington enact youth chatbot safeguards",
"source": "MultiState: State Children's Online Safety Laws Expand to AI Chatbots in 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/4/30/state-childrens-online-safety-laws-expand-beyond-social-media-in-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Three additional US states (beyond California) enact laws restricting AI chatbot interactions with minors"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Markey Youth AI Privacy Act introduced in Senate",
"source": "Markey Senate press release on Youth AI Privacy Act",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/markey-introduces-legislation-to-protect-children-from-privacy-and-safety-risks-posed-by-ai-chatbots",
"expected_date": "2026-04-15",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Senator Markey introduces or advances Youth AI Privacy Act requiring privacy safeguards in AI chatbots for minors"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
... (truncated)