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248_031predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
39.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | I would expect if we are as I think in the middle of the singularity, I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks as it were in this case uh world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
I would expect if we are as I think in the middle of the singularity, I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks as it were in this case uh world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓
  1. 2025-05-21hitInaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegas
    How: Enhanced Games organization publishes confirmed date + venue for inaugural competition
    Source: https://www.enhanced.com/newsroom/enhanced-games-announce-host-city-and-dates-breaks-swimming-world-recordconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Memorial Day weekend 2026 confirmed; 8 events across swimming/track/weightlifting.
  2. 2025-05-21hitGkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trial
    How: Athlete in Enhanced Games program posts time/mark surpassing existing official world record
    Source: https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/enhanced-games-slated-for-2026-memorial-day-weekend-kristian-gkolomeev-goes-faster-than-50-free-world-record/conf 98%
    Notes: HIT — Gkolomeev 20.89s vs Cielo's 2009 mark of 20.91s. Won $1M bonus. WADA does not recognize, but Enhanced does.
  3. 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24pendingEnhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incident
    How: Memorial Day Weekend events conclude with all athletes completing competition; no athlete hospitalization on record
    Source: https://www.sportcal.com/analyst-comment/a-review-of-the-2026-enhanced-games/conf 65%
    Notes: Critical credibility test for the franchise.
  4. 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24pendingEnhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world records
    How: Inaugural Games produce 2+ marks superior to current WADA-sanctioned records (50m free, 100m sprint, snatch, etc.)
    Source: Enhanced Games results, IAAF/FINA records databaseconf 55%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingEnhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvements
    How: Enhanced Games organization confirms 2027 event with athletic targets exceeding 2026 marks (validates scaling-law trajectory)
    Source: Enhanced Games official announcementsconf 50%
    Notes: Cascade — scaling-law claim is YoY pace, not single-event record.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 40.4% → 39.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.051
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.045
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.4500.050-0.038
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.4500.050-0.033
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450-0.022

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050-0.086
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.079
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.074
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.072
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.056

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Biology 2026-12] 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional [248_031] Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory ypending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks... world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I would expect if we are as I think in the middle of the singularity, I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks as it were in this case uh world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.",
  "conv_cues": "I would expect",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "year-over-year after 2026",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Inaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las Vegas",
      "notes": "HIT — Memorial Day weekend 2026 confirmed; 8 events across swimming/track/weightlifting.",
      "source": "https://www.enhanced.com/newsroom/enhanced-games-announce-host-city-and-dates-breaks-swimming-world-record",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.enhanced.com/newsroom/enhanced-games-announce-host-city-and-dates-breaks-swimming-world-record",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-21",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Enhanced Games organization publishes confirmed date + venue for inaugural competition"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Gkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trial",
      "notes": "HIT — Gkolomeev 20.89s vs Cielo's 2009 mark of 20.91s. Won $1M bonus. WADA does not recognize, but Enhanced does.",
      "source": "https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/enhanced-games-slated-for-2026-memorial-day-weekend-kristian-gkolomeev-goes-faster-than-50-free-world-record/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "source_url": "https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/enhanced-games-slated-for-2026-memorial-day-weekend-kristian-gkolomeev-goes-faster-than-50-free-world-record/",
      "expected_date": "2025-05-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-05-21",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Athlete in Enhanced Games program posts time/mark surpassing existing official world record"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Enhanced Games world records will accelera
... (truncated)