Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | I would expect if we are as I think in the middle of the singularity, I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks as it were in this case uh world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.
Verbatim quote
I would expect if we are as I think in the middle of the singularity, I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks as it were in this case uh world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-05-21hitInaugural Enhanced Games scheduled for May 21-24, 2026 Las VegasHow: Enhanced Games organization publishes confirmed date + venue for inaugural competitionSource: https://www.enhanced.com/newsroom/enhanced-games-announce-host-city-and-dates-breaks-swimming-world-recordconf 99%Notes: HIT — Memorial Day weekend 2026 confirmed; 8 events across swimming/track/weightlifting.
- 2025-05-21hitGkolomeev posts unofficial 50m freestyle world record (20.89s) in Enhanced trialHow: Athlete in Enhanced Games program posts time/mark surpassing existing official world recordSource: https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/enhanced-games-slated-for-2026-memorial-day-weekend-kristian-gkolomeev-goes-faster-than-50-free-world-record/conf 98%Notes: HIT — Gkolomeev 20.89s vs Cielo's 2009 mark of 20.91s. Won $1M bonus. WADA does not recognize, but Enhanced does.
- 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24pendingEnhanced Games inaugural competition delivered without major safety incidentHow: Memorial Day Weekend events conclude with all athletes completing competition; no athlete hospitalization on recordSource: https://www.sportcal.com/analyst-comment/a-review-of-the-2026-enhanced-games/conf 65%Notes: Critical credibility test for the franchise.
- 2026-05-21 → 2026-05-24pendingEnhanced 2026 produces >=2 records faster than current official world recordsHow: Inaugural Games produce 2+ marks superior to current WADA-sanctioned records (50m free, 100m sprint, snatch, etc.)Source: Enhanced Games results, IAAF/FINA records databaseconf 55%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingEnhanced Games announces second edition with year-over-year mark improvementsHow: Enhanced Games organization confirms 2027 event with athletic targets exceeding 2026 marks (validates scaling-law trajectory)Source: Enhanced Games official announcementsconf 50%Notes: Cascade — scaling-law claim is YoY pace, not single-event record.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.051 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.022 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.086 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | [Biology 2026-12] 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional [248_031] Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory y | pending |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"context": "I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks... world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I would expect if we are as I think in the middle of the singularity, I would expect to to start to see scaling law type performance in in uh benchmarks as it were in this case uh world records for the enhanced games start to take off on a really impressive trajectory from year to year.",
"conv_cues": "I would expect",
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... (truncated)