Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | We've raised $3.5 million to support this competition. in success, we will make at least one film and potentially two films. You know, I'm always like just full length feature films. Full length feature films global around the world. And these films will hopefully depict what the future could be like.
Verbatim quote
We've raised $3.5 million to support this competition. in success, we will make at least one film and potentially two films. You know, I'm always like just full length feature films. Full length feature films global around the world. And these films will hopefully depict what the future could be like.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.049 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.039 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.018 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.616 | manifold | What will be the total prize in the third Manifold Prize Drawing? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
| 0.600 | manifold | Will I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.580 | polymarket | Will "PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
| 0.561 | polymarket | Will "GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
| 0.560 | polymarket | Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
| 0.560 | manifold | Who will win the Second Prize Drawing? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.560 | polymarket | Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-15 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "1-2 films",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "in success",
"context": "We've raised $3.5 million to support this competition. in success, we will make at least one film and potentially two films. Full length feature films global around the world. And these films will hopefully depict what the future could be like.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "We've raised $3.5 million to support this competition. in success, we will make at least one film and potentially two films. You know, I'm always like just full length feature films. Full length feature films global around the world. And these films will hopefully depict what the future could be like.",
"conv_cues": "we will make",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "After September 25, 2026 finalists",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "238_004",
"expected_date": "2026-07-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "231_013",
"expected_date": "2027-06-26",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "232_055",
"expected_date": "2028-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "CMQ_002",
"expected_date": "2028-09-07",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "235_030",
"expected_date": "2033-07-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "241_043",
"expected_date": "2033-08-1
... (truncated)