Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns
Predictor: Pete (audience, data center builder) · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country, if you will, the high school football cities of the world.
Verbatim quote
I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country, if you will, the high school football cities of the world.
Predictor: Pete (audience, data center builder)
Evidence about this node from Pete (audience, data center builder) is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-09-30pendingModular 10MW DC product reaches commercial GA from at least one major vendorHow: Vertiv MegaMod CoolChip 10MW or competitor product enters general availability with first customer install confirmedSource: DataCenterKnowledge + IEEE Spectrum modular data center coverageconf 70%
- 2026-12-31pendingDonovan-affiliated entity publicly discloses pilot 10MW data center siteHow: Press release or local news identifies first US small-town site with 10MW distributed AI data center sponsored by Donovan/CoreWeave/affiliatedSource: Distributed data center buildout sector reportingconf 50%
- 2027-06-30pendingBluSky AI or peer announces 1000+ small-town site pipelineHow: Distributed-DC operator (BluSky, Span, Duos Edge AI) publicly commits to 1000+ site pipeline in regulatory filing or press releaseSource: Colorado Springs Gazette + Latitude Media coverageconf 40%
- 2027-12-31pendingFirst 100 distributed sites in operation across distributed-DC ecosystemHow: Aggregate count of operating <=10MW AI data centers in towns under 50k population crosses 100 per Pew/SemiAnalysis trackerSource: Pew Research 1500-DC pipeline + 67% non-urbanconf 55%
- 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pending20,000-site target progress crosses 1% milestone (200 sites)How: Donovan-affiliated vehicle reports 200+ operating sites in 10MW class in earnings or annual reportSource: Linear-extrapolation from announced ambitionconf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | 50.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.132 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.065 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.048 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.028 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (12)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "20,000 x 10MW = 200 GW",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-Other",
"context": "my answer is that's only 120 10 megawatt data centers and you put them in an area and we tile the areas to be able to do that and Ahmad I think it matches perfectly with your idea of national champions... I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country.",
"verbatim": "I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country, if you will, the high school football cities of the world.",
"conv_cues": "I want to build; I'm ready",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"timeframe": "Aspirational",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "235_038",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Modular 10MW DC product reaches commercial GA from at least one major vendor",
"source": "DataCenterKnowledge + IEEE Spectrum modular data center coverage",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/modular-data-center",
"expected_date": "2026-09-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Vertiv MegaMod CoolChip 10MW or competitor product enters general availability with first customer install confirmed"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Donovan-affiliated entity publicly discloses pilot 10MW data center site",
"source": "Distributed data center buildout sector reporting",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"source_url": "https://www.platocom.net/post/data-centers-impact-on-rural-water",
"expected_date": "2026-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Press release or local news identifies first US small-town site with 10MW distributed AI data center sponsored by Donovan/CoreWeave/affiliated"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "BluSky AI or peer announces 1000+ small-town site pipeline",
"source": "Colorado Springs Gazette + Latitude Media coverage",
"status
... (truncated)