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238_066predictionEnergyAI-timing

Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns

Predictor: Pete (audience, data center builder) · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
40.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31
Edges in / out
12 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country, if you will, the high school football cities of the world.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country, if you will, the high school football cities of the world.

Predictor: Pete (audience, data center builder)

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Pete (audience, data center builder) is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-09-30pendingModular 10MW DC product reaches commercial GA from at least one major vendor
    How: Vertiv MegaMod CoolChip 10MW or competitor product enters general availability with first customer install confirmed
    Source: DataCenterKnowledge + IEEE Spectrum modular data center coverageconf 70%
  2. 2026-12-31pendingDonovan-affiliated entity publicly discloses pilot 10MW data center site
    How: Press release or local news identifies first US small-town site with 10MW distributed AI data center sponsored by Donovan/CoreWeave/affiliated
    Source: Distributed data center buildout sector reportingconf 50%
  3. 2027-06-30pendingBluSky AI or peer announces 1000+ small-town site pipeline
    How: Distributed-DC operator (BluSky, Span, Duos Edge AI) publicly commits to 1000+ site pipeline in regulatory filing or press release
    Source: Colorado Springs Gazette + Latitude Media coverageconf 40%
  4. 2027-12-31pendingFirst 100 distributed sites in operation across distributed-DC ecosystem
    How: Aggregate count of operating <=10MW AI data centers in towns under 50k population crosses 100 per Pew/SemiAnalysis tracker
    Source: Pew Research 1500-DC pipeline + 67% non-urbanconf 55%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pending20,000-site target progress crosses 1% milestone (200 sites)
    How: Donovan-affiliated vehicle reports 200+ operating sites in 10MW class in earnings or annual report
    Source: Linear-extrapolation from announced ambitionconf 30%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.7%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 41.9% → 40.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.9%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 43.9% → 41.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.9%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 46.3% → 43.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.3%-3.7pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_GRID_50GW_2029
50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029
50.0%0.5000.050-0.132
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.500-0.065
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.048
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.030
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.5000.050-0.028

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.066
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.062
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.052
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.038
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.037

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (12)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "20,000 x 10MW = 200 GW",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-Other",
  "context": "my answer is that's only 120 10 megawatt data centers and you put them in an area and we tile the areas to be able to do that and Ahmad I think it matches perfectly with your idea of national champions... I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country.",
  "verbatim": "I want to build 20,000 data centers across the country at 10 megawatts so that I'm in less than one millisecond from any place in the country, if you will, the high school football cities of the world.",
  "conv_cues": "I want to build; I'm ready",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "Aspirational",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Modular 10MW DC product reaches commercial GA from at least one major vendor",
      "source": "DataCenterKnowledge + IEEE Spectrum modular data center coverage",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/modular-data-center",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vertiv MegaMod CoolChip 10MW or competitor product enters general availability with first customer install confirmed"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Donovan-affiliated entity publicly discloses pilot 10MW data center site",
      "source": "Distributed data center buildout sector reporting",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.platocom.net/post/data-centers-impact-on-rural-water",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Press release or local news identifies first US small-town site with 10MW distributed AI data center sponsored by Donovan/CoreWeave/affiliated"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BluSky AI or peer announces 1000+ small-town site pipeline",
      "source": "Colorado Springs Gazette + Latitude Media coverage",
      "status
... (truncated)