← Cockpit
241_044predictionEnergyAI-timing

Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
52.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
14 / 5
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | This government is doing a very good job of making energy permitting more accessible. The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated, solving the grid problems

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
This government is doing a very good job of making energy permitting more accessible. The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated, solving the grid problems

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

US DCs accelerating with Trump admin permitting reforms. Confirmed.

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.633

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 52.4% → blend 52.4% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 52.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓
  1. 2025-07-23hitTrump EO accelerating data center permitting issued
    How: Trump administration issues executive order streamlining federal data center permitting (FAST-41, NEPA, CWA, CAA)
    Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/accelerating-federal-permitting-of-data-center-infrastructure/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — EO confirmed July 2025 covering 100MW+ load, $500M+ projects.
  2. 2026-02-20hit300+ state data center bills filed in 30+ states
    How: MultiState/NCSL trackers report >=200 state data center bills filed across 25+ states in 2026 legislative session
    Source: https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/2/20/state-data-center-legislation-in-2026-tackles-energy-and-tax-issuesconf 95%
    Notes: HIT (mixed signal) — state pushback growing, headwind to acceleration thesis.
  3. 2026-03-04hitRatepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developers
    How: Major data center hyperscalers sign White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge committing to cover full cost of new generation
    Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/president-trump-secures-historic-commitment-to-keep-electricity-costs-down-amid-data-center-boom/conf 99%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingInterconnection queue backlog persists despite federal action
    How: FERC/PJM/MISO data shows interconnection queue median wait still >3 years despite EO
    Source: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48762conf 85%
    Notes: Counter-evidence — federal permitting alone doesn't solve grid bottleneck.
  5. 2026-12-31pendingData center capex grows >40% YoY in 2026
    How: Aggregate hyperscaler (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) capex 2026 vs 2025 >=40% increase
    Source: 10-K/10-Q filings, Synergy Research data center reportsconf 85%
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 52%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z52.4%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 53.6% → 52.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.6%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 54.6% → 53.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z54.6%-10.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.546 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.650-0.084
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.066
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.037
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.650+0.036
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6500.050-0.035

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.021
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.020
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.019
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.017
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.003

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (14)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_COMPUTE_1GW_2027Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_DELAYED50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031energy_grid_expansion
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "This government is doing a very good job of making energy permitting more accessible. The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated, solving the grid problems",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump EO accelerating data center permitting issued",
      "notes": "HIT — EO confirmed July 2025 covering 100MW+ load, $500M+ projects.",
      "source": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/accelerating-federal-permitting-of-data-center-infrastructure/",
      "status": "hit",
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      "expected_date": "2025-07-23",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
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    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "300+ state data center bills filed in 30+ states",
      "notes": "HIT (mixed signal) — state pushback growing, headwind to acceleration thesis.",
      "source": "https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/2/20/state-data-center-legislation-in-2026-tackles-energy-and-tax-issues",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/2/20/state-data-center-legislation-in-2026-tackles-energy-and-tax-issues",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-20",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "MultiState/NCSL trackers report >=200 state data center bills filed across 25+ states in 2026 legislative session"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Ratepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developers",
      "source": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/president-trump-secures-historic-commitment-to-keep-electricity-costs-down-amid-data-center-boom/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/president-trump-secures-historic-commitment-to-keep-electricity-costs-down-amid-data-center-boom/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-04",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-04",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Major data center hyperscalers sign White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge committing to cover full cost of new generation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_
... (truncated)