Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | This government is doing a very good job of making energy permitting more accessible. The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated, solving the grid problems
Verbatim quote
This government is doing a very good job of making energy permitting more accessible. The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated, solving the grid problems
Resolution evidence
US DCs accelerating with Trump admin permitting reforms. Confirmed.
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-07-23hitTrump EO accelerating data center permitting issuedHow: Trump administration issues executive order streamlining federal data center permitting (FAST-41, NEPA, CWA, CAA)Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/accelerating-federal-permitting-of-data-center-infrastructure/conf 99%Notes: HIT — EO confirmed July 2025 covering 100MW+ load, $500M+ projects.
- 2026-02-20hit300+ state data center bills filed in 30+ statesHow: MultiState/NCSL trackers report >=200 state data center bills filed across 25+ states in 2026 legislative sessionSource: https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/2/20/state-data-center-legislation-in-2026-tackles-energy-and-tax-issuesconf 95%Notes: HIT (mixed signal) — state pushback growing, headwind to acceleration thesis.
- 2026-03-04hitRatepayer Protection Pledge signed by major data center developersHow: Major data center hyperscalers sign White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge committing to cover full cost of new generationSource: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/president-trump-secures-historic-commitment-to-keep-electricity-costs-down-amid-data-center-boom/conf 99%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingInterconnection queue backlog persists despite federal actionHow: FERC/PJM/MISO data shows interconnection queue median wait still >3 years despite EOSource: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48762conf 85%Notes: Counter-evidence — federal permitting alone doesn't solve grid bottleneck.
- 2026-12-31pendingData center capex grows >40% YoY in 2026How: Aggregate hyperscaler (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) capex 2026 vs 2025 >=40% increaseSource: 10-K/10-Q filings, Synergy Research data center reportsconf 85%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | -0.084 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.066 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.036 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.021 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.020 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.019 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.017 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (14)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 | Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 | Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED | 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Raw metadata
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"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "This government is doing a very good job of making energy permitting more accessible. The rate at which data centers are getting built is now accelerated, solving the grid problems",
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... (truncated)