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238_046predictionEnergyAI-timing

xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale

Predictor: Gwynne Shotwell / xAI · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
44.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
D
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31
Edges in / out
15 / 5
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | XI has committed to develop 1.2 gawatt of power uh as their supercomput power source that will be the that will be with every additional data center. So every data center they build they're building at 1.2 gawatt.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
XI has committed to develop 1.2 gawatt of power uh as their supercomput power source that will be the that will be with every additional data center. So every data center they build they're building at 1.2 gawatt.

Predictor: Gwynne Shotwell / xAI

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Gwynne Shotwell / xAI is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.646

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 44.1% → blend 44.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2025-12-30hitxAI purchases third Memphis building for Colossus 2 expansion
    How: xAI announces acquisition of third Memphis building bringing total site capacity toward 2 GW
    Source: Tom Hardware - Musk to expand xAI training capacity to 2 GW with third building at Memphis siteconf 99%
    Notes: HIT - Memphis site total capacity now scaling to about 2 GW structurally consistent with 1.2 GW per data center.
  2. 2026-01-31hitxAI Colossus 2 reaches 2 GW operational capacity with 555K GPUs
    How: xAI Colossus 2 reports operational capacity of 2 GW total power with about 555000 GPU units installed
    Source: Introl Blog - xAI Colossus Hits 2 GW: 555K GPUs 18B USD Largest AI Site Jan 2026conf 95%
  3. 2026-03-01hitxAI announces dedicated 1.2 GW power plant for Memphis campus
    How: xAI publicly announces commissioning of a 1.2 GW dedicated power plant for the Memphis Colossus campus
    Source: Basenor - xAI Building 1.2GW Power Plant to Run Its AI Supercomputerconf 95%
    Notes: HIT - directly cited in Shotwell prediction; March 2026 announcement matches the 1.2 GW number verbatim.
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingxAI breaks ground on second 1.2 GW data center campus outside Memphis
    How: xAI publicly announces a second campus location designed to operate at 1.2 GW from inception
    Source: Tom Hardware / SemiAnalysis xAI buildout reportingconf 65%
    Notes: Direct test of every additional data center claim - requires new geographic site beyond Memphis.
  5. 2027-12-01 → 2029-10-31pendingxAI cumulative deployed AI compute capacity exceeds 5 GW across multiple sites
    How: xAI publicly reports 5 GW or more total operational capacity across 3 or more distinct data center campuses
    Source: xAI investor / customer disclosures SemiAnalysis trackingconf 55%
    Notes: Cascade - Shotwell claim implies linear scale-out at 1.2 GW per DC.
  6. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z44.1%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 45.6% → 44.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.6%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 48.4% → 45.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.4%-3.1pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 48.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z51.5%+2.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.515 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z49.2%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z51.5%-3.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.515 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_GRID_50GW_2029
50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029
50.0%0.5500.050-0.141
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.066
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.059
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.034
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.027

Top outgoing (children)

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prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.046
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.039
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.033
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.022
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.021

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

APLDNVDAARMBBAITSMCEVAAISOUNCRWVSITMGTLBGOOGLMETAMRVLMSFTORCLIBMAMZNAVGOBABAAMDSFTBYQCOM

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (15)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_1GW_2027Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027compute_scale
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_DELAYED50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031energy_grid_expansion
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.589edgar_8kX-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)mentionspending2026-05-19
0.589edgar_8kX-Energy, Inc. (XE) (CIK 0002088896)mentionspending2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1.2 GW per data center",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "XI has committed to develop 1.2 gawatt of power uh as their supercomput power source that will be the that will be with every additional data center. So every data center they build they're building at 1.2 gawatt.",
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "XI has committed to develop 1.2 gawatt of power uh as their supercomput power source that will be the that will be with every additional data center. So every data center they build they're building at 1.2 gawatt.",
  "conv_cues": "committed to develop",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "Ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI purchases third Memphis building for Colossus 2 expansion",
      "notes": "HIT - Memphis site total capacity now scaling to about 2 GW structurally consistent with 1.2 GW per data center.",
      "source": "Tom Hardware - Musk to expand xAI training capacity to 2 GW with third building at Memphis site",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/musk-purchases-third-building-at-memphis-site-to-expand-xais-training-capacity-to-a-monstrous-2-gigawatts-announcement-comes-days-after-musk-vows-to-have-more-ai-compute-than-everyone-else",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI announces acquisition of third Memphis building bringing total site capacity toward 2 GW"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI Colossus 2 reaches 2 GW operational capacity with 555K GPUs",
      "source": "Introl Blog - xAI Colossus Hits 2 GW: 555K GPUs 18B USD Largest AI Site Jan 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/xai-colossus-2-gigawatt-expansion-555k-gpus-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI Colossus 2 reports operational capacity of 2 GW total power with about 555000 GPU units installed"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI announces dedicated 1.2 GW power plant for Memphis campus",
      "notes": "HIT - directly cited in Shotwell prediction; March 2026 announcement matches the 1.2 GW number verbatim.",
      "source": "Basenor - xAI Building 1.2GW Power Plant to Run Its AI Supercomputer",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/xai-building-1-2gw-power-plant-to-run-its-ai-supercomputer",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-02-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI publicly announces commissioning of a 1.2 GW dedicated power plant for the Memphis Colossus campus"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_i
... (truncated)