← Cockpit
INF_034predictionReal EstateDC-REIT-expansion

Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026.

Predictor: Equinix

Prior probability
80.0%
Current probability
53.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
1 / 0
Tickers exposed
27

Prediction text

Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026. | Equinix 2026 deliverables

Key catalyst: Equinix 2026 deliverables

Watch events: Equinix quarterly deliveries; xScale utilization rates

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Equinix Q1-Q4 2025 earnings disclosures confirm xScale ramp. 'Full operational' 2026 could slip to 2027.

Predictor: Equinix

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from Equinix is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 53.9% → blend 53.9% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 80%2026-05-022026-05-172026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 53.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-03-22overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-04-29hitEquinix raises full-year 2026 guidance after Q1 strength
    How: Equinix Q1 2026 earnings release confirms revenue >=$2.4B, raised FY 2026 guidance, and on-track delivery of major projects
    Source: https://commercialobserver.com/2026/04/equinix-ai-q1-data-centers/ — Equinix Q1 2026: $2.444B revenue (+10% YoY), 51% adj. EBITDA margin, raised FY guidanceconf 97%
    Notes: HIT — Q1 2026 confirmed strong project pipeline. Note: Equinix's currently-disclosed pipeline is 46 major projects across 32 markets with 6 xScale, slightly different from the 56/13 figures in the prediction context (likely reflects completed deliveries reducing the active count).
  3. 2026-06-11pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2026-08-30pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2026-06-30 → 2026-12-31pendingxScale program reaches >=2 GW total capacity / >=$23B investment commitment
    How: Equinix discloses xScale joint-venture program total investment >=$23B and ~2 GW power capacity in 10-Q or investor day
    Source: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/29/equinix-eqix-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/ — Equinix Q1 2026 transcript: xScale JV at $23B/2 GW commitmentconf 85%
  6. 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAI/HPC bookings remain >50% of net new revenue mix
    How: Equinix Q2/Q3 2026 disclosures show AI/HPC workloads continuing to drive >=50% of net new bookings
    Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/Motley%20Fool/1604093/equinix-eqix-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/ — Q1 2026 transcript references AI as primary driverconf 70%
  7. 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst xScale customer onboarding milestone (Q4 2026)
    How: Equinix publicly confirms first xScale customer onboarding for new 2026 builds in Q4 2026 earnings or press release
    Source: https://ca.investing.com/news/company-news/equinix-q1-2026-slides-record-bookings-drive-guidance-raise-margins-hit-51-93CH-4597443 — Q1 2026 slides cite Q4 2026 first-customer-onboarding targetconf 80%
  8. 2026-12-31pendingEquinix delivers >=80% of 2026 announced project portfolio operational by year-end
    How: Equinix Q4 2026 / FY 2026 release reports delivered project count operational vs. planned 56-project portfolio
    Source: Equinix investor relations FY 2026 disclosures (https://investor.equinix.com/)conf 60%
    Notes: Original prediction tied 56 projects to 2026; portfolio rolls so partial delivery is the realistic test.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z53.9%-6.0pp
Network propagation: 59.9% → 53.9%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z59.9%+8.5pp
intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.599 blend=0.599 LLR=0.347 κ=0.50 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6127227050582519,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Equinix",
  "total_llr": 0.6931471805599453,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.05319883095725302,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5132965719842193,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 0.6931471805599453,
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Equinix execution on AI-driven pipeline tracking strongly.",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.3465735902799726
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 1,
  "outside_weight": 0,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5986329806413709,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "unchanged",
      "evidence_strength": "moderate",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.03
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 0.3997724212372257,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.5986329806413709,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5986329806413709,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.3465735902799726,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z51.3%-4.0pp
Network propagation: 55.4% → 51.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.4%-7.8pp
Network propagation: 63.2% → 55.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z63.2%-13.3pp
Network propagation: 76.6% → 63.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z76.6%-3.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.766 blend=0.766 LLR=-0.203 κ=0.50 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Equinix",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.3862943611198908,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.8,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-22",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.7655876216850789,
  "posterior_logit": 1.1835618070658085,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.7655876216850789,
  "blended_posterior": 0.7655876216850789,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2027325540540822,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

27 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (21)

FSLRARGANWULFAPLDIRENEQIXCRWVFLNCNBISIRMMETAMSFTETNORCLSFTBYSTXAAPLAMZNAMTGOOGLHUBB

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importEquinix Q1-Q4 2025 earnings disclosures confirm xScale ramp. 'Full operational' 2026 could slip to 2027.

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.615edgar_8kEQUINIX INC (EQIX) (CIK 0001101239)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.615edgar_8kEQUINIX INC (EQIX) (CIK 0001101239)mentionspending2026-05-15

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "56 projects / 13 xScale",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Illustrates the DC REIT response to hyperscaler demand: the infrastructure-as-real-estate thesis becomes operationalized by the largest co-lo firm globally.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "specific counts; corporate disclosure",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Equinix raises full-year 2026 guidance after Q1 strength",
      "notes": "HIT — Q1 2026 confirmed strong project pipeline. Note: Equinix's currently-disclosed pipeline is 46 major projects across 32 markets with 6 xScale, slightly different from the 56/13 figures in the prediction context (likely reflects completed deliveries reducing the active count).",
      "source": "https://commercialobserver.com/2026/04/equinix-ai-q1-data-centers/ — Equinix Q1 2026: $2.444B revenue (+10% YoY), 51% adj. EBITDA margin, raised FY guidance",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://commercialobserver.com/2026/04/equinix-ai-q1-data-centers/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Equinix Q1 2026 earnings release confirms revenue >=$2.4B, raised FY 2026 guidance, and on-track delivery of major projects"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xScale program reaches >=2 GW total capacity / >=$23B investment commitment",
      "source": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/29/equinix-eqix-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/ — Equinix Q1 2026 transcript: xScale JV at $23B/2 GW commitment",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/29/equinix-eqix-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Equinix discloses xScale joint-venture program total investment >=$23B and ~2 GW power capacity in 10-Q or investor day"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "AI/HPC bookings remain >50% of net new revenue mix",
      "source": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/Motley%20Fool/1604093/equinix-eqix-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/ — Q1 2026 transcript references AI as primary driver",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/Motley%20Fool/1604093/equinix-eqix-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
     
... (truncated)