Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt.

Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. | terapab is 1 terowatt per year of AI compute. 50 times the current global output of 20 gawatt.

terapab is 1 terowatt per year of AI compute. 50 times the current global output of 20 gawatt.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1TW/year (50x current)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFI-SqnvQK8",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "terapab is 1 terowatt per year of AI compute. 50 times the current global output of 20 gawatt. Uh, pretty amazing, surpassing all the fabs on Earth.",
  "verbatim": "terapab is 1 terowatt per year of AI compute. 50 times the current global output of 20 gawatt.",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "Terafab buildout",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk publicly announces Terafab project (Tesla + xAI + SpaceX + Intel)",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab — announced March 21 2026",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-21",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Elon Musk publicly announces Terafab joint venture targeting 1 TW/yr AI compute (50x current 20 GW)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Intel formally joins Terafab as manufacturing partner",
      "source": "https://www.cio.com/article/4155419/intel-bets-on-terafab-to-help-it-reassert-itself-in-the-ai-chip-race.html",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-07",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Intel publicly confirms Terafab partnership and contribution of foundry expertise"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bernstein / external analysts publish capex feasibility critique (~$5T to hit 1 TW)",
      "source": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-4-9-the-18a-renaissance-intel-and-musks-terafab-project-redefines-global-ai-compute",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-09",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Bernstein Research publicly estimates ~$5T capex required for full 1 TW Terafab target"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla picks Intel 14A process for Austin Terafab pilot AI5 chip",
      "source": "https://www.technology.org/2026/04/23/tesla-picks-intels-14a-process-for-musks-austin-terafab-project/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla / Intel public confirmation that AI5 chip uses Intel 14A node at Austin Terafab"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Austin Terafab pilot fab achieves first wafer-out (small-batch AI5 production)",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab — small-batch AI5 production planned 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expect
... (truncated)